Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Wages, Inflation, and Trade Agreements

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into the current state of wage growth, job prospects, inflation trends, Federal Reserve activity, and emerging trade agreements. Wage growth, which experienced downward pressure following the Fed’s interest rate hikes starting in 2022, appears to be stabilizing. Currently, the average monthly wage per U.S. worker is around $7,000. How does this figure compare with wages in the E.U. and other nations? On the inflation front, the cost of borrowing (interest rates) exceeds the rate of inflation (CPI), a potentially positive signal for the economy. Is there mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates this summer? Meanwhile, trade negotiations are gaining momentum. How significant is it for the U.S. to secure a balanced trade agreement with China? What elements of the recent E.U. deal stand out as particularly beneficial for the U.S.? And which other countries might be priorities in America’s trade strategy? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Core PCE Inflation at 2.6% (YOY)
• 10-year bond yield at 4.37%
• ISM Services at 51.6

Inside the Economy: New Tariffs, S&P 500, and Trade Issues

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at the impact of new tariffs, the S&P 500, and ongoing trade issues—particularly with China. Revenue from customs duties, commonly referred to as tariffs, has reached an all-time high since record-keeping began. While this revenue may soon peak and begin to decline, it is not projected to disappear entirely. In which countries or industries could tariffs remain elevated? Turning to markets and the S&P 500, earnings and revenues are not setting records, but healthcare and other sectors have been trending upward. Why are industrials moving lower? Could the market currently be in oversold territory? Trade tensions also continue to escalate, particularly between the U.S. and China. How does China’s dependence on exports with the U.S. compare with that of other trading partners. Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• New Orders for Durable Goods up 9.1%
• Custom Duties reach $15B in revenue in April
• Manufacturing Production Output index at 101.1 in March

Inside the Economy: Consumer Economy, Tariffs, Economics of Russia in Europe

This week on Inside the Economy, we analyze the strength of consumers in the economy, trade and tariffs, and economics of Russia in Europe. The economic report is still providing minimal worry signs for the current state of the economy. Consumer spending ticked down slightly in February—but has generally remained on trend. What events may have impacted consumer spending in the first quarter? Tariff strategies have been implemented at higher levels than expected but have recently been scaled back. Vietnam was the first country to enter negotiations with the U.S.—what is being discussed with Scott Bessent? What other countries have started talks with the U.S.? Meanwhile, European nations are recognizing the importance of Russia’s vast hydrocarbon supply as energy costs continue to rise. How does U.K. household electricity spending compare to that of the U.S.? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. Core CPI at 2.8 (YOY)
• Unemployment at 4.2%
• Discretionary Consumer Spending increased 2.1% in February (YOY)

Inside the Economy: International Stocks, Inflation & Personal Income, Market Volatility

This week, on "Inside the Economy," we will break down the international stock markets and their outperformance compared to the US in 2025. Could this be the beginning of a long-awaited turnaround in the international markets? The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure showed a slight uptick in March while personal incomes also rose. Can US consumers continue to power the economy forward as they have over the past few years? Amid a market pullback and the potential for a correction in the S&P500, we review recent market volatility and how often we see corrections and bear markets. Overall, we continue to see strength in international stocks and a normalization in inflation. Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• European stocks are beating the US by a record
• Gold, International stocks, and Fixed income are the best performers of the year so far
• Portfolio diversification appears to be benefiting investors as the S&P500 nears correction territory

Inside the Economy: Consumer Attitudes and Markets

This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer attitudes and market trends, specifically considering the S&P 500 entering correction territory. Revolving consumer credit as a percentage of disposable personal income is hovering around 6%, which has historically been considered a healthy level. Mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP continues to stay on track. What is the current level of foreclosures in the housing market compared to 2008? Are trends in auto delinquencies showing signs of concern? The S&P 500 has reached correction territory but may have also entered oversold territory. Could the correction be a sign of trouble, or simply volatility? Looking at the timeframe from election day to now, treasuries are now beating stocks. How might future Federal Reserve meetings impact treasuries? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• S. Core CPI at 3.1 (YOY)
• 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.65%
• S&P 500 1-year return of 10%

Inside the Economy: Unemployment, U.S. Net Worth, and New Home Sales

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore unemployment and jobs, U.S. net worth by households, and the housing market. Economic data suggests a potential return to trend growth. As of January, job openings reached 7.6 million, while unemployment peaked at 6.8 million. With recent developments regarding federal job cuts, potential reductions to the Department of Defense workforce have been considered. If a select percentage of these workers are laid off, what effect could that have on national unemployment? In other news, U.S. net worth has reached $170 trillion, primarily driven by housing and market investments. How much wealth is held by the average U.S. household compared to the rest of the world? New home sales fell 10% in January, but the overall level of home sales remains high when compared to 2010-2016. How has the multifamily sector performed in recent months? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Durable Goods at 3.1%
• 10-year bond yield at 4.29%
• Crude Oil at $69.47 a barrel

Inside the Economy: Domestic Consumer, the Potential U.S. Sovereign Fund, and Europe & Asia

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the current state of the domestic consumer in relation to inflation and interest rates, the potential for a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, and Europe and Asia. The media has been buzzing about an increase in year-over-year inflation. Is this necessarily bad news, or is it an adjustment in the numbers? Which inflation data point saw the biggest increase? Additionally, the current administration has proposed the idea of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, with the goal of promoting fiscal sustainability. Could monetizing the U.S.’s majority stake in gold significantly aid in the creation of the fund? Across the globe, China has seen record investment outflows, alongside a minimal amount of inbound investment. Japan, once one of China’s top partners for direct investment, has shifted its focus. Who is Japan now prioritizing for direct investment? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. Core CPI at 3.3 (YOY)
• 30-year Mortgage at 6.87%
• The U.S. holds 8.1k metric tons of Gold as of Dec. 2024

Inside the Economy: Markets, Treasury Bill, Oil, and U.S. International Trade Balance

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss recent market activity, Treasury Bills, Oil, and the U.S. international trade balance in light of recent tariff discussions. The U.S. equity markets had a strong year last year but have been more volatile as the new year begins. Net profit margins and forward earnings are good, but what does the price-to-earnings ratio tell us about equities? Market expectations for Fed Policy has raised its target Federal Funds rate from 3% to 4% by 2026 between last fall to the start of the year. Is there a chance the Fed will hike rates in 2025? In oil production, the U.S. remains a net exporter of oil and petroleum products. Historically, we were dependent on imports from Saudi Arabia—are we still dependent on them today? Finally, with ongoing tariff discussions, will they dramatically affect the U.S. international trade balance? Historically, the U.S. has had a service surplus and a goods deficit, but could the trade deficit shift with potential tariffs being implemented? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Durable Goods at -2.2%
• ISM Survey at 50.9
• S. Core CPI at 3.2 (YOY)

Inside the Economy: Global Economy, New Administration, and Trade

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the global economy, the new administration’s economic direction, and trade. Looking at projections for global GDP growth in 2025, we’re not expecting significant growth in countries like Great Britain and Germany. How will their respective central banks manage inflation compared to the United States? The U.S. economy has experienced steady post-pandemic GDP growth, with consumer spending leading the way. In the year ahead, we’ll be closely monitoring both consumer consumption and government spending. As for inflation, what key components will be monitored to ensure CPI remains steady? Turning to global supply chains, the ISM Manufacturing Index has remained in contraction for most of 2024. Key drivers include ongoing supply chain disruptions and the strength of the U.S. dollar. On the flip side, where does the services sector stand—contractionary or expansionary—heading into 2025? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude Oil at $76.13 a barrel
• Unemployment at 4.1%
• S. GDP growth rate at 3.1% in Q3

Inside the Economy: 2024 Market Performance, Household Finances, and The Housing Market

This week on “Inside the Economy,” we break down 2024 market performance, how finances for US households look going into 2025, and the housing market. The S&P 500 Index is in rare air with back-to-back 20%+ returns in 2023 and 2024. Should we expect another 20%+ in 2025? US consumers remain resilient with spending on goods and services finishing strong in 2024.  Can US consumers continue to spend at the same rate in 2025? US home affordability remains historically low, and homeownership continues to hover around 62%. High interest rates with long-dated bonds back to their highest level over a year have kept a lid on refinancing and mortgage activity. Where will the US housing market go in 2025? Overall, we continue to see a normalization in the US dollar and interest rates. Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• US housing annual growth remains around its long-term average of 4-7%
• 30-year bonds moved back to their highest yield in more than a year, just shy of 5%
• US Debt and the US Dollar continue to climb