Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Consumer Attitudes and Markets

This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer attitudes and market trends, specifically considering the S&P 500 entering correction territory. Revolving consumer credit as a percentage of disposable personal income is hovering around 6%, which has historically been considered a healthy level. Mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP continues to stay on track. What is the current level of foreclosures in the housing market compared to 2008? Are trends in auto delinquencies showing signs of concern? The S&P 500 has reached correction territory but may have also entered oversold territory. Could the correction be a sign of trouble, or simply volatility? Looking at the timeframe from election day to now, treasuries are now beating stocks. How might future Federal Reserve meetings impact treasuries? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• S. Core CPI at 3.1 (YOY)
• 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.65%
• S&P 500 1-year return of 10%

Inside the Economy: Unemployment, U.S. Net Worth, and New Home Sales

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore unemployment and jobs, U.S. net worth by households, and the housing market. Economic data suggests a potential return to trend growth. As of January, job openings reached 7.6 million, while unemployment peaked at 6.8 million. With recent developments regarding federal job cuts, potential reductions to the Department of Defense workforce have been considered. If a select percentage of these workers are laid off, what effect could that have on national unemployment? In other news, U.S. net worth has reached $170 trillion, primarily driven by housing and market investments. How much wealth is held by the average U.S. household compared to the rest of the world? New home sales fell 10% in January, but the overall level of home sales remains high when compared to 2010-2016. How has the multifamily sector performed in recent months? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Durable Goods at 3.1%
• 10-year bond yield at 4.29%
• Crude Oil at $69.47 a barrel

Inside the Economy: Domestic Consumer, the Potential U.S. Sovereign Fund, and Europe & Asia

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the current state of the domestic consumer in relation to inflation and interest rates, the potential for a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, and Europe and Asia. The media has been buzzing about an increase in year-over-year inflation. Is this necessarily bad news, or is it an adjustment in the numbers? Which inflation data point saw the biggest increase? Additionally, the current administration has proposed the idea of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, with the goal of promoting fiscal sustainability. Could monetizing the U.S.’s majority stake in gold significantly aid in the creation of the fund? Across the globe, China has seen record investment outflows, alongside a minimal amount of inbound investment. Japan, once one of China’s top partners for direct investment, has shifted its focus. Who is Japan now prioritizing for direct investment? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. Core CPI at 3.3 (YOY)
• 30-year Mortgage at 6.87%
• The U.S. holds 8.1k metric tons of Gold as of Dec. 2024

Inside the Economy: Markets, Treasury Bill, Oil, and U.S. International Trade Balance

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss recent market activity, Treasury Bills, Oil, and the U.S. international trade balance in light of recent tariff discussions. The U.S. equity markets had a strong year last year but have been more volatile as the new year begins. Net profit margins and forward earnings are good, but what does the price-to-earnings ratio tell us about equities? Market expectations for Fed Policy has raised its target Federal Funds rate from 3% to 4% by 2026 between last fall to the start of the year. Is there a chance the Fed will hike rates in 2025? In oil production, the U.S. remains a net exporter of oil and petroleum products. Historically, we were dependent on imports from Saudi Arabia—are we still dependent on them today? Finally, with ongoing tariff discussions, will they dramatically affect the U.S. international trade balance? Historically, the U.S. has had a service surplus and a goods deficit, but could the trade deficit shift with potential tariffs being implemented? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Durable Goods at -2.2%
• ISM Survey at 50.9
• S. Core CPI at 3.2 (YOY)

Inside the Economy: Global Economy, New Administration, and Trade

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the global economy, the new administration’s economic direction, and trade. Looking at projections for global GDP growth in 2025, we’re not expecting significant growth in countries like Great Britain and Germany. How will their respective central banks manage inflation compared to the United States? The U.S. economy has experienced steady post-pandemic GDP growth, with consumer spending leading the way. In the year ahead, we’ll be closely monitoring both consumer consumption and government spending. As for inflation, what key components will be monitored to ensure CPI remains steady? Turning to global supply chains, the ISM Manufacturing Index has remained in contraction for most of 2024. Key drivers include ongoing supply chain disruptions and the strength of the U.S. dollar. On the flip side, where does the services sector stand—contractionary or expansionary—heading into 2025? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude Oil at $76.13 a barrel
• Unemployment at 4.1%
• S. GDP growth rate at 3.1% in Q3

Inside the Economy: 2024 Market Performance, Household Finances, and The Housing Market

This week on “Inside the Economy,” we break down 2024 market performance, how finances for US households look going into 2025, and the housing market. The S&P 500 Index is in rare air with back-to-back 20%+ returns in 2023 and 2024. Should we expect another 20%+ in 2025? US consumers remain resilient with spending on goods and services finishing strong in 2024.  Can US consumers continue to spend at the same rate in 2025? US home affordability remains historically low, and homeownership continues to hover around 62%. High interest rates with long-dated bonds back to their highest level over a year have kept a lid on refinancing and mortgage activity. Where will the US housing market go in 2025? Overall, we continue to see a normalization in the US dollar and interest rates. Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• US housing annual growth remains around its long-term average of 4-7%
• 30-year bonds moved back to their highest yield in more than a year, just shy of 5%
• US Debt and the US Dollar continue to climb

Inside the Economy: Inflation, Markets, Bond Yields, and Manufacturing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we break down the sectors of inflation, market trends, bond yields, and manufacturing production. The primary driver of inflation still present in the market is housing, while core goods show little to no inflation year-over-year. Where else has inflation cooled? New home prices remain high, and new home inventories are steady. Is household debt as a percentage of income impacting consumers when compared to historical data? As for the equity markets, they continue to be overvalued, particularly the Dow. In the manufacturing sector, production is nearly back to where it was pre pandemic. How do other countries like Germany and Japan compare in terms of manufacturing capacity? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• 10-year bond yield at 4.57%
• Core Inflation at 3.3% (YOY)
• Manufacturing Production Index at 99.0 in November

Inside the Economy: Jobs, Housing, and Global Markets

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the outlook for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the job market, housing, and global markets. The chances of a future interest rate cut by the Fed have increased – what factors have led to this change? Yields on fixed income have gone down; how might they react to another interest rate cut? We also explore U.S. manufacturing employment and consider policy shifts in the past several years like tariffs aimed at retaining jobs. Are these policies successfully bringing jobs back to the U.S.? Is the overall job market starting to tighten? Additionally, we discuss the strong momentum in U.S. markets post-election – are stocks becoming overvalued, and what could trigger a correction? Is there still an imbalance between U.S. stocks as compared to markets in other countries? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• 10-year bond yield at 4.17%
• Unemployment at 4.2%
• 30-year Mortgage at 6.69%

Inside the Economy: Consumers, Markets, and Cost of Money

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer, markets, expectations, and the cost of money. Total retail sales exceeded $700 Billion in October. Are these high sales due to the upcoming holiday season? Have credit card debt delinquencies increased as a result of higher consumer spending? House prices have yet to retreat, despite higher mortgage rates. How much inventory is available for new home purchases? As for the markets, they continue to reach new record highs. According to the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, is the market currently overvalued or undervalued? Has the gap between U.S. and international securities widened? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. Head CPI is 2.6 (YOY)
• Total Retail Sales in October at $718.9B
• Median Single-Family Sale Price in October at $412.2k

Inside the Economy: Post-election economy, Mortgage Market, and Tariffs

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the post-election economy, changes in the mortgage market, and the future of deficit spending. Jobless claims remain consistent year-over-year, and the personal savings rate has normalized. Regarding wages and salaries, they have been decreasing year-over-year. Are consumers concerned that inflation will outpace their wages? Meanwhile, mortgage rates have increased in October and November. What is the current volume of mortgage refinance applications? Tariffs currently account for two percent of net federal receipts, while individual income taxes and social insurance taxes make up the majority. If more tariffs are enacted, what is the projected impact on future net federal receipts. Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• ISM Services at 56.0
• 30-year Mortgage at 6.79%
• Personal Saving Rate at 4.6% in September