Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Inflation Outlook, Affordability, and Hydrocarbons

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the inflation outlook, affordability, and hydrocarbons alongside urea prices. Spending in February grew about 3 percent year over year, which may indicate a relatively strong consumer. What can the uptick in consumer spending be attributed to? Inflation has remained elevated in recent data. What are the projections for a future rate cut or hike? Housing affordability remains strained, especially as the cost of building new homes stays elevated. In addition, with interest rates and other costs rising post-COVID, the annual mortgage payment as a share of income remains high. What are the current levels of monthly property insurance premiums, and what factors are built into them? Regarding energy, the United States is now a net exporter. Are regions such as the European union and China primarily net importers or next exporters of energy? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• PCE Core CPI at 3.1% (YoY)
• National home price to income ratio was 4.93 in the fourth quarter of 2025
• Crude Oil at $95.36 a barrel

Inside the Economy: Job Market, Future Inflation, and Who is Buying and Shipping to Whom

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the evolving job market and affordability, financial markets and inflation, and break down the latest trends in imports and exports. Job availability has been trending lower since 2022. What factors could influence whether this trend continues, stabilizes, or reverses in the near term? Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquencies have risen sharply in recent years. Where might this trend lead next, and what could the downstream implications be? The Congressional Budget Office projects that federal deficits will rise from 2026 through 2035 due to policy changes. What specific spending and revenue adjustments are driving those increases? As for the biggest source of U.S. imports, European Union took the lead, which country or region is close behind? Foreign investors have steadily increased their holdings of U.S. government debt. Will this demand remain strong in the years ahead? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Real GDP increased 1.4% in Q4 2025
• 30 year mortgage dipped to 5.98%
• Crude Oil rose to $72.58 per barrel

Inside the Economy: Consumer Debt, Inflation, Deflation, and S&P Earnings Growth

This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer debt, inflation and deflation across the U.S., and S&P earnings growth. The total consumer debt balance and its composition have not changed much for consumers aside from slight increases in mortgages since the post Covid period. On the other hand, balances by delinquency status have seen larger adjustments. Which source of debt has changed the most and why? Is the new data more of a normalization within the debt landscape? Inflation readings across the country show some disparity, largely driven by gasoline prices. Which areas are experiencing deflation? Technically, some metrics suggest markets may be overvalued based on earnings as measured by the price to earnings ratio. What was earnings growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, and how does that compare historically? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• ISM Service at 53.8
• Head CPI Inflation at 2.4% (YOY)
• S&P 500 Earnings Growth at 11.9% (Q4 2025)

Inside the Economy: Housing and Population, Markets, and Water

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the housing market, population trends, financial markets, and global freshwater withdrawal rates. Housing prices have declined year over year, while demand continues to vary by region. We explore whether prices might be showing signs of stabilizing, or if further declines may be possible. U.S. natural population growth has slowed in recent years, and tighter immigration policies have further weighed on overall population growth. Could the U.S. face negative population growth in the years ahead and could that dynamic influence housing prices? In the financial markets, U.S. IT investment has returned to all-time highs, matching levels last seen during the 2001 dot-com boom. The focus now shifts to whether earnings growth appears sufficient to support this investment surge, and what evidence could confirm its durability. European investors have played a meaningful role in supporting U.S. equity markets. How substantial is their exposure today, and what does the outlook suggest moving forward? When it comes to water, global freshwater withdrawals have increased severalfold over the past century as population growth, agriculture, and industrialization continue to strain limited resources. The question now is how sustainable this path might be. Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment rate held steady at 4.4%
• Durable Goods increased 5.3%
• ISM Manufacturing Survey registered 52.6

Inside the Economy: Inflation and Disposable Income, Earnings, and Housing

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore U.S. inflation compared to disposable income, stock market earnings, and housing. U.S. inflation closed out 2025 lighter than expected, hovering around 2 to 3 percent. Where is the biggest CPI impact with regard to tariffs? Disposable income in the U.S. has seen a 6.2 percent acceleration in the post pandemic period. We examine what this could imply for recession risk and GDP. What effect could the implementation of tax cuts in 2026 have following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill? S&P 500 earnings in recent years have been dominated by the likes of the Magnificent Seven stocks. We discuss current projections and market expectations for 2026 and whether there may be potential for broader participation across the stock index. Lastly, U.S. mortgage rates have dropped to one of the lowest levels in years, with refinancing applications increasing as a result. Has this had a positive effect on new home sales? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment at 4.4%
• 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.06%
• Median New Home Sales Prices at $392.3k in October 2025

Inside the Economy: Affordability, Market Fundamentals, and The New Global Supply System

This week on Inside the Economy, we break down housing affordability, Wall Street’s equity outlook for 2026, the state of Venezuela’s oil industry, and the regional destinations driving China’s exports. Rent growth has moderated since the post-pandemic surge, while housing affordability has shown some signs of improvement. Where do current real house prices rank relative to the last five decades? We also take a closer look at recent commentary from Wall Street strategists on equities    as we enter 2026. Many are striking an optimistic tone—do you agree with their perspective, or do you see reasons for caution? In 2014, Venezuela had more than 60 drilling rigs in operation. How does that compare to today’s reality? Meanwhile, China’s export mix by destination has evolved meaningfully over time. Where does the U.S. currently stand, particularly in light of the ongoing tariff discussions? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude Oil at $57.62 a barrel
• Unemployment at 4.6%
• PCE Core at 2.9% year over year

Inside the Economy: AI Trade, Inflation, Wages, and the Jobs Market

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into stock performance and take a closer look under the hood at AI, inflation, wages, and the U.S. job market. The “Magnificent Seven” stocks of the S&P 500 have been primary drivers of the market over the past few years. Is the index beginning to broaden now? What has led to Google’s success this year? We also examine long-term inflation, which has averaged around 3% in the U.S. How do inflation numbers in the 2020s compare to those of the 1970s and 1980s, and what insights can be drawn from 2025 inflation numbers? Meanwhile, disposable income and compensation growth have recently exceeded inflation by more than 2%, according to available data. Unemployment has ticked up to 4.6%, but when we zoom out historically, where are we and what cracks may be present? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude Oil at $55.07 a barrel
• Unemployment at 4.6%
• California’s share of U.S. GDP is 14.5%

Inside the Economy: Household Income, Home Ownership versus Renting, and The Markets

This week on Inside the Economy, we cover U.S. consumer income growth, the growing rent-versus-buy debate among younger generations, and the latest in U.S. markets. Median income growth has cooled sharply since early 2022. The key question now: Are we normalizing, losing ground, or entering a new phase? With that in mind, it’s interesting to see how November’s median annual pay varies across states, with Colorado landing on the lower–middle end of the range. Does your state’s median income surprise you? Homeownership has declined in recent years, while rent prices continue to rise. For younger generations, it seems like it’s not just the purchase price giving them pause. What other factors might be shaping their decision to rent or buy? U.S. money-market funds have climbed past $8 trillion as the market keeps expanding. Curious how much foreign private investors have poured into U.S. stocks in recent years? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude oil reached $59.15 a barrel
• 30-year mortgage is 6.19%
• S. employment remained at 4.4%

Inside the Economy: Inflation, Auto Loans, and Changes in China

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore stable increases in inflation, emerging issues in credit card and auto loan delinquencies, U.S. markets, and slow changes in China. Inflation has remained relatively sticky, with slight increases in the past few months. What sector appears to be driving this rise? Auto loan and credit card delinquencies, which had been less of an issue over the last few years, are climbing, with auto delinquencies reaching 6.5%, the highest since 1994. Which consumers are experiencing the highest delinquency rates, and how might this be contributing to stress in the fixed-income markets? Turning to China, productivity has shown signs of weakening, and tariffs have contributed to a decline in total U.S. imports from China in 2025. What trends are emerging in China’s manufacturing capacity and production levels? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment at 4.4%
• S&P 500 Revenue Growth at 8.4% (Q3 2025)
• S. share of global debt is 34.5%

Inside the Economy: Labor and the Markets, S&P Earnings and Growth, and America First

This week on Inside the Economy, we address the labor market, S&P 500 earnings growth, and the concept of “America First”. As we near year-end, how do announced U.S. layoffs stack up against historical trends and the elevated levels recorded in 2020?  We’ll explore several potential drivers behind the recent surge in U.S. layoffs, some of which may be surprising. The U.S. first-lien mortgage delinquency rate keeps declining, how close are we to hitting a historic low? With the S&P 500’s 25-year average P/E ratio hitting 23.1, has the earnings growth been keeping pace? And when you hear the phrase “America First,” do you know what it truly means? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• 30-year mortgage rates at 6.22%
• 10-year bond yield at 4.11%
• Crude Oil at $59.66 a barrel