Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: AI Trade, Inflation, Wages, and the Jobs Market

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into stock performance and take a closer look under the hood at AI, inflation, wages, and the U.S. job market. The “Magnificent Seven” stocks of the S&P 500 have been primary drivers of the market over the past few years. Is the index beginning to broaden now? What has led to Google’s success this year? We also examine long-term inflation, which has averaged around 3% in the U.S. How do inflation numbers in the 2020s compare to those of the 1970s and 1980s, and what insights can be drawn from 2025 inflation numbers? Meanwhile, disposable income and compensation growth have recently exceeded inflation by more than 2%, according to available data. Unemployment has ticked up to 4.6%, but when we zoom out historically, where are we and what cracks may be present? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude Oil at $55.07 a barrel
• Unemployment at 4.6%
• California’s share of U.S. GDP is 14.5%

Inside the Economy: Household Income, Home Ownership versus Renting, and The Markets

This week on Inside the Economy, we cover U.S. consumer income growth, the growing rent-versus-buy debate among younger generations, and the latest in U.S. markets. Median income growth has cooled sharply since early 2022. The key question now: Are we normalizing, losing ground, or entering a new phase? With that in mind, it’s interesting to see how November’s median annual pay varies across states, with Colorado landing on the lower–middle end of the range. Does your state’s median income surprise you? Homeownership has declined in recent years, while rent prices continue to rise. For younger generations, it seems like it’s not just the purchase price giving them pause. What other factors might be shaping their decision to rent or buy? U.S. money-market funds have climbed past $8 trillion as the market keeps expanding. Curious how much foreign private investors have poured into U.S. stocks in recent years? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude oil reached $59.15 a barrel
• 30-year mortgage is 6.19%
• S. employment remained at 4.4%

Inside the Economy: Inflation, Auto Loans, and Changes in China

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore stable increases in inflation, emerging issues in credit card and auto loan delinquencies, U.S. markets, and slow changes in China. Inflation has remained relatively sticky, with slight increases in the past few months. What sector appears to be driving this rise? Auto loan and credit card delinquencies, which had been less of an issue over the last few years, are climbing, with auto delinquencies reaching 6.5%, the highest since 1994. Which consumers are experiencing the highest delinquency rates, and how might this be contributing to stress in the fixed-income markets? Turning to China, productivity has shown signs of weakening, and tariffs have contributed to a decline in total U.S. imports from China in 2025. What trends are emerging in China’s manufacturing capacity and production levels? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment at 4.4%
• S&P 500 Revenue Growth at 8.4% (Q3 2025)
• S. share of global debt is 34.5%

Inside the Economy: Labor and the Markets, S&P Earnings and Growth, and America First

This week on Inside the Economy, we address the labor market, S&P 500 earnings growth, and the concept of “America First”. As we near year-end, how do announced U.S. layoffs stack up against historical trends and the elevated levels recorded in 2020?  We’ll explore several potential drivers behind the recent surge in U.S. layoffs, some of which may be surprising. The U.S. first-lien mortgage delinquency rate keeps declining, how close are we to hitting a historic low? With the S&P 500’s 25-year average P/E ratio hitting 23.1, has the earnings growth been keeping pace? And when you hear the phrase “America First,” do you know what it truly means? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• 30-year mortgage rates at 6.22%
• 10-year bond yield at 4.11%
• Crude Oil at $59.66 a barrel

Inside the Economy: Housing Market, AI Frenzy, and U.S. Growth

This week on Inside the Economy, we address the housing market, the AI investment frenzy, and economic growth in the U.S. Home prices have become increasingly unaffordable, and potential upcoming rate cuts are unlikely to solve the issue. Denver’s housing market remains flat, with some rising prices - where do prices appear to be increasing the most? Has the housing market reached a breaking point? The private sector continues to face a tighter labor market, largely due to increased productivity. Has it started to come apart, or is there simply more turnover in the labor force? Meanwhile, S&P 500 company earnings have been strong, driven mainly by gains in productivity. How do small business earnings compare? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Core CPI Inflation at 3.0% (YOY)
• 10-year bond yield at 4.01%
• Crude Oil at $61.84 a barrel

Inside the Economy: Consumers and their Jobs, The Frothy Markets, and Prospects for Europe

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the state of consumers and employment, today’s frothy markets, and economic developments in Europe. While we await updated jobless claims data —delayed due to the government shutdown—we can already see signs of possible moderation in consumer behavior. Both consumer and credit card spending have declined over the past three months, while consumer loan growth has remained relatively flat. The labor market continues to normalize following the hiring surge of recent years, and U.S. high-propensity business applications are steadily rising—suggesting continued entrepreneurial activity. Meanwhile, import prices have increased 4% compared to a 2% rise in domestic goods. Tune in to learn more about these trends and their potential implications for the broader economy.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude oil prices settled at $59.49 per barrel.
• The unemployment rate remains at 4.3%.
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.14%.

Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending, Jobs, New Home Sales, and Fed Actions

This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer spending, employment trends, new home sales data, and recent actions by the Federal Reserve. Despite concerns, there is minimal evidence that hiring has slowed drastically, and layoffs remain low. But are consumers starting to feel pressure when it comes to spending, particularly in the context of inflation? We also explore the current level of bank deposits and the impact of the September rate cut. With the possibility of two more rate cuts in 2025, is there justification—perhaps within the housing data? Lastly, corporate bond spreads aren’t widening to the extent seen during the 2008 financial crisis or the pandemic era. Where does the 10-year Treasury yield stand relative to its historical average? Tune in to learn more.

Key Takeaways:

• 10-year bond yield at 4.18%
• Federal Funds Rate in September at 4.25%
• Manufacturing Production Index in August at 101.0

Inside the Economy: Employment, Stock Valuations, and the U.S. Bond Market

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at employment trends, the pending rate cut, stock valuations, and the U.S. bond market. Jobless claims are rising and the unemployment rate has ticked up. Could fewer hours worked per employee be part of the story? Equity valuations are reaching levels not seen in decades. With the S&P 500 trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.4, we explore whether a correction could occur or if there might be room for further growth. Meanwhile, in the bond market, commercial paper issuance has surged back to levels last seen in 2006. What could be driving this renewed activity after nearly two decades? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. Core Consumer Price Index at 3.1% (YOY)
• ISM Service Survey reached 52.0 %
• 10-year bond yield at 4.01%

Inside the Economy: Employment, Housing, and Inflation

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss employment growth, the housing market, and the latest inflation data. Year-over-year job growth has dipped below 1%. Could this be a sign of a weakening labor market or a return to pre-pandemic norms? In housing, new home sales reveal a growing gap between inventory and buyer demand, raising questions about whether potential rate cuts could provide relief or if the market is simply adjusting after years of high prices. Meanwhile, inflation has ticked up slightly, but GDP remains relatively strong in the 3% range. Is the U.S. consumer starting to feel the pressure? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• PCE Core Inflation at 2.9% (YOY)
• S. GDP growth rate at 3.3% in Q2
• 10-year bond yield at 4.22%

Inside the Economy: Inflation, The Prudent Consumer, and Tariffs

This week on Inside the Economy, we examine key developments in the latest economic report, with a focus on the Consumer Price Index and the primary drivers of inflation. We’ll also explore changes in average hourly earnings compared to a year ago, alongside trends in total debt balances. Are consumers spending money they already have, or might they be increasingly relying on debt? One of the most pressing topics right now is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. What outcome seems most likely by year’s end? And in a surprising shift, talk of a potential recession has nearly vanished from headlines, reaching near record lows in media mentions. What’s behind this dramatic change in tone? Tune in for insight and analysis on all this and more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. Core CPI rose to 3.1%
• Mortgage debt now accounts for 70% of total household debt
• Investors with 3-9 properties represent the largest share of single-family home purchases