Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Markets are Great, but What Happens Now?

This week on Inside the Economy, we address what the future may hold for the economy following a period of strong market performance. Strong corporate earnings have helped drive the markets, but new money entering the markets has also played an important role. Where is some of that money being invested? Real disposable income has recently turned negative following a surge in inflation. What short term event caused that increase in inflation? Meanwhile, the personal savings rate has leveled off at 2 percent, which is more consistent with historical norms. What do consumer debt levels look like, including credit card balances and mortgage delinquencies? The mortgage backed securities (MBS) market is currently showing a current coupon MBS yield of 5.3 percent. Since the start of the Iran conflict, yields have moved higher, reflecting reduced market expectations for near-term rate cuts. Is the spread between mortgage backed securities and Treasuries tightening or widening? Finally, at the beginning of the Iran conflict, crude oil prices surged on concerns that the Strait of Hormuz could close. Where do oil prices stand today, and did the increase have any impact on consumers' travel plans? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• 3 Month T. Bill at 3.85%
• 10-year Bond at 4.48%
• Spot Gold price at $4,200

Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending and Home Sales, Equity Markets, and Global Trade

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into the shifting dynamics of consumer spending, housing, capital markets, and global trade. Data shows that retail and gasoline spending have surged to become major drivers of year-over-year spending growth, pushing total monthly growth toward the 6% mark in early 2026 alongside steady services spending. Where would our economic growth stand without these two volatile categories? Meanwhile, this broader economic resilience is spilling into the housing market, where falling mortgage rates and moderating prices have propelled existing home sales to their fastest pace of the year. This raises a critical question for hopeful buyers and investors alike: is this renewed demand about to send median home prices soaring out of reach once again, or can the market maintain its delicate balance? On the capital markets front, net U.S. equity issuance is projected to experience a notable surge throughout the remainder of the year, rising at its fastest pace since at least 1999. While headline-grabbing mega-IPOs like SpaceX are fueling this supply shock, what other massive public debuts are waiting in the wings to reshape investor portfolios? Finally, a historic milestone has been reached in the energy sector, where solar power officially surpassed coal in the U.S. electricity generation mix for the very first time. This monumental shift leaves energy investors with one pressing question: is this the permanent twilight of coal's dominance, or could seasonal grid demands trigger a short-term comeback? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment remains at 4.3%
• Crude Oil dipped below $73.79 per barrel
• CPI Core at 2.9% (YoY)

Inside the Economy: Jobs, Spending, Inflation and the Rest of the World

This week on Inside the Economy, we examine jobs and spending, inflation, and economies outside the United States. Since 2020, hiring demand has increased across the South and in parts of the country such as Idaho, while many Western states have experienced a decline. At the same time, new job creation remains strong. Are there any potential warning signs or anomalies behind the recent uptick in new jobs, or does the data point to continued strength? Inflation has also ticked higher in recent months, driven in part by conflict in the Middle East. Additional pressure has come from rising U.S. beef prices, as drought conditions and shrinking cattle herds continue to constrain supply. What other areas of inflation are being affected by drought conditions? Finally, the world’s three largest LNG exporters, the United States, Australia, and Qatar, account for a combined 252 million tons of exports. How could the global LNG landscape change as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, and which countries may emerge as future players? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment at 4.3%
• Money-Market Fund Assets reach $8.8 Trillion as of May 28^th
• PCE Core CPI at 3.3% (YoY)

Inside the Economy: Inflation, Interest Rates, and Venezuela

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore inflation, interest rates, Venezuela and other trading partners. U.S. inflation accelerated in April, likely driven by continued increases in gasoline prices, groceries, rent, airfare, and other everyday expenses. As inflation pressures persist, small businesses may feel a greater financial strain than larger corporations. New data highlights which states have the highest proportion of employees working for small businesses — where does Colorado rank on the list? Moving onto bond yields, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have fluctuated over the years alongside changing Federal Reserve leadership and evolving economic conditions. New data shows that AI hyperscalers have been rapidly increasing debt issuance to finance the accelerating expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, with 2026 bond sales already exceeding total issuance for all of 2025. Riskier areas of the bond market have recently outperformed, with CCC-rated junk bonds leading year-to-date gains. Could this be a sign of growing investor confidence or a warning that markets may be taking on more risk than they realize? Lastly, Venezuelan dollar bonds have staged a significant rally after years of distress, with prices climbing sharply as investor optimism and geopolitical developments improve sentiment toward the country’s debt market. The question now is, will this momentum continue moving forward? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude oil at $93.88 per barrel
• 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.51%
• Headline CPI at 3.8% (YoY)

Inside the Economy: Personal Income, S&P Earnings Growth, and Oil Supply

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore personal income, S&P 500 profit and earnings growth, and world oil inventories. New data for disposable personal income shows a jump in income, most likely due to government employees returning to work. Personal outlays also increased in February and March, but what might be driving the rise in spending? On the employment front, the market continues to grow with hires increasing month to month while layoffs remain unchanged. At the same time, job openings are declining. What is causing the decline? S&P 500 earnings growth has been trending in a positive direction, with first quarter estimates reaching 27 percent. Interestingly, companies have also increased stock buybacks this year. Which company has announced $100 billion in share repurchases? Lastly, world oil inventories are falling at a record pace amid the Iran war. While the United States is less dependent on Iranian oil, which countries are most affected? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. GDP growth rate at 2.0% in Q1
• 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.37%
• PCE Core CPI at 3.2% (YoY)

Inside the Economy: Cost of Living, Iran Conflict, and Global Markets

This week on Inside the Economy, we assess the cost of living, impact from the Iran conflict, and global markets including global trade. Consumer spending remains positive, yet the pace is beginning to slow alongside a pullback in credit card usage, what could be causing this shift, and could we expect this trend to continue? Historically, wage growth has often differed between high-skilled and low-skilled occupations, with only a few key periods where both moved in tandem. Where are we seeing wage growth trending today, and what does that tell us about the current labor market? As we continue to monitor developments in the Iran conflict, one message has come through clearly—capital markets have appeared resilient. While U.S. stocks have rebounded strongly, how have international equities performed and have they participated in the recovery? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude oil is $95.04 per barrel
• Colorado ranked 103 in Cost-of-Living Index 2025 Average
• 30-year mortgage at 6.23%

Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending, Pricing, and S&P 500 Outlook

This week on Inside the Economy, we assess consumer spending, home pricing, and the outlook for the S&P 500. Amid the Iranian conflict, oil prices have increased, but has this impacted consumer spending? Higher-income households have seen after-tax wage growth rise to 5.6% year-over-year; how does that compare to lower-income households? Additionally, according to the Affordability Price Index, consumer affordability appears to have been minimally affected. How could interest rate changes affect affordability going forward? Turning to home prices, they seem reluctant to adjust, which may be attributed to labor and material costs remaining around $200 per square foot. Geographically, where are home prices seeing the largest increases? Finally, the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is near its lowest level in a year and appears healthier relative to earnings, but how many companies have issued positive EPS guidance? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Core CPI at 2.5% (YoY)
• Nondefense Capital Goods Shipments at 6.4% in February (YoY)
• S&P 500 price to earnings ratio at 20

Inside the Economy: World Events, Safe Haven Status, and Cost of Energy

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the economic impact from the current world events, safe haven status, and cost of energy. Inflation has cooled and is now stabilizing around 3%, but that remains above the Federal Reserve’s usual 2% target. This raises the question of whether consumers will begin to see meaningful relief in prices ahead. Over the past 80 years, gasoline and other energy goods have become a smaller share of U.S. consumer spending, yet they remain highly volatile. If the volatility persists, could the impact stay contained or could it begin to pressure broader household budgets? Global primary energy consumption is broadly diversified across sources, yet one category continues to gain share and stand out from the rest - so what is driving this shift, and what may it indicate for markets and the economy ahead? The S&P 500 has recently fallen below its 200-day moving average, a key technical support level, raising an important question: is this simply a short-term, headline-driven pullback, or possibly an early signal of a more sustained shift in market direction? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• 30-year mortgage rates rose to 6.38%
• Unemployment rate remained at 4.4%
• Crude Oil at $101.00 a barrel

Inside the Economy: Inflation Outlook, Affordability, and Hydrocarbons

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the inflation outlook, affordability, and hydrocarbons alongside urea prices. Spending in February grew about 3 percent year over year, which may indicate a relatively strong consumer. What can the uptick in consumer spending be attributed to? Inflation has remained elevated in recent data. What are the projections for a future rate cut or hike? Housing affordability remains strained, especially as the cost of building new homes stays elevated. In addition, with interest rates and other costs rising post-COVID, the annual mortgage payment as a share of income remains high. What are the current levels of monthly property insurance premiums, and what factors are built into them? Regarding energy, the United States is now a net exporter. Are regions such as the European union and China primarily net importers or next exporters of energy? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• PCE Core CPI at 3.1% (YoY)
• National home price to income ratio was 4.93 in the fourth quarter of 2025
• Crude Oil at $95.36 a barrel

Inside the Economy: Job Market, Future Inflation, and Who is Buying and Shipping to Whom

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the evolving job market and affordability, financial markets and inflation, and break down the latest trends in imports and exports. Job availability has been trending lower since 2022. What factors could influence whether this trend continues, stabilizes, or reverses in the near term? Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquencies have risen sharply in recent years. Where might this trend lead next, and what could the downstream implications be? The Congressional Budget Office projects that federal deficits will rise from 2026 through 2035 due to policy changes. What specific spending and revenue adjustments are driving those increases? As for the biggest source of U.S. imports, European Union took the lead, which country or region is close behind? Foreign investors have steadily increased their holdings of U.S. government debt. Will this demand remain strong in the years ahead? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Real GDP increased 1.4% in Q4 2025
• 30 year mortgage dipped to 5.98%
• Crude Oil rose to $72.58 per barrel