Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Cost of Living, Iran Conflict, and Global Markets

This week on Inside the Economy, we assess the cost of living, impact from the Iran conflict, and global markets including global trade. Consumer spending remains positive, yet the pace is beginning to slow alongside a pullback in credit card usage, what could be causing this shift, and could we expect this trend to continue? Historically, wage growth has often differed between high-skilled and low-skilled occupations, with only a few key periods where both moved in tandem. Where are we seeing wage growth trending today, and what does that tell us about the current labor market? As we continue to monitor developments in the Iran conflict, one message has come through clearly—capital markets have appeared resilient. While U.S. stocks have rebounded strongly, how have international equities performed and have they participated in the recovery? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude oil is $95.04 per barrel
• Colorado ranked 103 in Cost-of-Living Index 2025 Average
• 30-year mortgage at 6.23%

Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending, Pricing, and S&P 500 Outlook

This week on Inside the Economy, we assess consumer spending, home pricing, and the outlook for the S&P 500. Amid the Iranian conflict, oil prices have increased, but has this impacted consumer spending? Higher-income households have seen after-tax wage growth rise to 5.6% year-over-year; how does that compare to lower-income households? Additionally, according to the Affordability Price Index, consumer affordability appears to have been minimally affected. How could interest rate changes affect affordability going forward? Turning to home prices, they seem reluctant to adjust, which may be attributed to labor and material costs remaining around $200 per square foot. Geographically, where are home prices seeing the largest increases? Finally, the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is near its lowest level in a year and appears healthier relative to earnings, but how many companies have issued positive EPS guidance? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Core CPI at 2.5% (YoY)
• Nondefense Capital Goods Shipments at 6.4% in February (YoY)
• S&P 500 price to earnings ratio at 20

Inside the Economy: World Events, Safe Haven Status, and Cost of Energy

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the economic impact from the current world events, safe haven status, and cost of energy. Inflation has cooled and is now stabilizing around 3%, but that remains above the Federal Reserve’s usual 2% target. This raises the question of whether consumers will begin to see meaningful relief in prices ahead. Over the past 80 years, gasoline and other energy goods have become a smaller share of U.S. consumer spending, yet they remain highly volatile. If the volatility persists, could the impact stay contained or could it begin to pressure broader household budgets? Global primary energy consumption is broadly diversified across sources, yet one category continues to gain share and stand out from the rest - so what is driving this shift, and what may it indicate for markets and the economy ahead? The S&P 500 has recently fallen below its 200-day moving average, a key technical support level, raising an important question: is this simply a short-term, headline-driven pullback, or possibly an early signal of a more sustained shift in market direction? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• 30-year mortgage rates rose to 6.38%
• Unemployment rate remained at 4.4%
• Crude Oil at $101.00 a barrel

Inside the Economy: Inflation Outlook, Affordability, and Hydrocarbons

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the inflation outlook, affordability, and hydrocarbons alongside urea prices. Spending in February grew about 3 percent year over year, which may indicate a relatively strong consumer. What can the uptick in consumer spending be attributed to? Inflation has remained elevated in recent data. What are the projections for a future rate cut or hike? Housing affordability remains strained, especially as the cost of building new homes stays elevated. In addition, with interest rates and other costs rising post-COVID, the annual mortgage payment as a share of income remains high. What are the current levels of monthly property insurance premiums, and what factors are built into them? Regarding energy, the United States is now a net exporter. Are regions such as the European union and China primarily net importers or next exporters of energy? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• PCE Core CPI at 3.1% (YoY)
• National home price to income ratio was 4.93 in the fourth quarter of 2025
• Crude Oil at $95.36 a barrel

Inside the Economy: Job Market, Future Inflation, and Who is Buying and Shipping to Whom

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the evolving job market and affordability, financial markets and inflation, and break down the latest trends in imports and exports. Job availability has been trending lower since 2022. What factors could influence whether this trend continues, stabilizes, or reverses in the near term? Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquencies have risen sharply in recent years. Where might this trend lead next, and what could the downstream implications be? The Congressional Budget Office projects that federal deficits will rise from 2026 through 2035 due to policy changes. What specific spending and revenue adjustments are driving those increases? As for the biggest source of U.S. imports, European Union took the lead, which country or region is close behind? Foreign investors have steadily increased their holdings of U.S. government debt. Will this demand remain strong in the years ahead? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Real GDP increased 1.4% in Q4 2025
• 30 year mortgage dipped to 5.98%
• Crude Oil rose to $72.58 per barrel

Inside the Economy: Consumer Debt, Inflation, Deflation, and S&P Earnings Growth

This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer debt, inflation and deflation across the U.S., and S&P earnings growth. The total consumer debt balance and its composition have not changed much for consumers aside from slight increases in mortgages since the post Covid period. On the other hand, balances by delinquency status have seen larger adjustments. Which source of debt has changed the most and why? Is the new data more of a normalization within the debt landscape? Inflation readings across the country show some disparity, largely driven by gasoline prices. Which areas are experiencing deflation? Technically, some metrics suggest markets may be overvalued based on earnings as measured by the price to earnings ratio. What was earnings growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, and how does that compare historically? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• ISM Service at 53.8
• Head CPI Inflation at 2.4% (YOY)
• S&P 500 Earnings Growth at 11.9% (Q4 2025)

Inside the Economy: Housing and Population, Markets, and Water

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the housing market, population trends, financial markets, and global freshwater withdrawal rates. Housing prices have declined year over year, while demand continues to vary by region. We explore whether prices might be showing signs of stabilizing, or if further declines may be possible. U.S. natural population growth has slowed in recent years, and tighter immigration policies have further weighed on overall population growth. Could the U.S. face negative population growth in the years ahead and could that dynamic influence housing prices? In the financial markets, U.S. IT investment has returned to all-time highs, matching levels last seen during the 2001 dot-com boom. The focus now shifts to whether earnings growth appears sufficient to support this investment surge, and what evidence could confirm its durability. European investors have played a meaningful role in supporting U.S. equity markets. How substantial is their exposure today, and what does the outlook suggest moving forward? When it comes to water, global freshwater withdrawals have increased severalfold over the past century as population growth, agriculture, and industrialization continue to strain limited resources. The question now is how sustainable this path might be. Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment rate held steady at 4.4%
• Durable Goods increased 5.3%
• ISM Manufacturing Survey registered 52.6

Inside the Economy: Inflation and Disposable Income, Earnings, and Housing

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore U.S. inflation compared to disposable income, stock market earnings, and housing. U.S. inflation closed out 2025 lighter than expected, hovering around 2 to 3 percent. Where is the biggest CPI impact with regard to tariffs? Disposable income in the U.S. has seen a 6.2 percent acceleration in the post pandemic period. We examine what this could imply for recession risk and GDP. What effect could the implementation of tax cuts in 2026 have following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill? S&P 500 earnings in recent years have been dominated by the likes of the Magnificent Seven stocks. We discuss current projections and market expectations for 2026 and whether there may be potential for broader participation across the stock index. Lastly, U.S. mortgage rates have dropped to one of the lowest levels in years, with refinancing applications increasing as a result. Has this had a positive effect on new home sales? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment at 4.4%
• 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.06%
• Median New Home Sales Prices at $392.3k in October 2025

Inside the Economy: Affordability, Market Fundamentals, and The New Global Supply System

This week on Inside the Economy, we break down housing affordability, Wall Street’s equity outlook for 2026, the state of Venezuela’s oil industry, and the regional destinations driving China’s exports. Rent growth has moderated since the post-pandemic surge, while housing affordability has shown some signs of improvement. Where do current real house prices rank relative to the last five decades? We also take a closer look at recent commentary from Wall Street strategists on equities    as we enter 2026. Many are striking an optimistic tone—do you agree with their perspective, or do you see reasons for caution? In 2014, Venezuela had more than 60 drilling rigs in operation. How does that compare to today’s reality? Meanwhile, China’s export mix by destination has evolved meaningfully over time. Where does the U.S. currently stand, particularly in light of the ongoing tariff discussions? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude Oil at $57.62 a barrel
• Unemployment at 4.6%
• PCE Core at 2.9% year over year

Inside the Economy: AI Trade, Inflation, Wages, and the Jobs Market

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into stock performance and take a closer look under the hood at AI, inflation, wages, and the U.S. job market. The “Magnificent Seven” stocks of the S&P 500 have been primary drivers of the market over the past few years. Is the index beginning to broaden now? What has led to Google’s success this year? We also examine long-term inflation, which has averaged around 3% in the U.S. How do inflation numbers in the 2020s compare to those of the 1970s and 1980s, and what insights can be drawn from 2025 inflation numbers? Meanwhile, disposable income and compensation growth have recently exceeded inflation by more than 2%, according to available data. Unemployment has ticked up to 4.6%, but when we zoom out historically, where are we and what cracks may be present? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude Oil at $55.07 a barrel
• Unemployment at 4.6%
• California’s share of U.S. GDP is 14.5%