Sharkey, Howes & Javer

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the housing market, consumer debt, and the current job market. Consumer spending is up right alongside total household debt, which has hit record highs for both housing and other loans. With mortgage late payments ticking up just a bit and foreclosures staying well below levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, what does this higher level of borrowing mean for the economy? On the housing front, while long term indexes show a post pandemic leap, recent data reveals that median asking rents have cooled to sit about 4% below their 2022 peak. Could this be temporary breathing room for tenants, or perhaps a sign of a broader shift in the rental market? Meanwhile, in the workforce, prime age (24-54 years old) labor force participation has held strong while the overall participation rate has dipped recently, and the labor share of income has trended downward to historic lows. What are these shifting workforce dynamics possibly signaling about our economy? Shifting to what was previously the hottest topic, large tariff refunds have pushed net government receipts below zero, turning tariff collections into a sudden cash boost for the economy. Could this unexpected influx of cash provide a welcome boost to growth, or perhaps will it just add to the national deficit and fuel inflation? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline rate at 3.4%
• Initial jobless claims register at 200,000
• Crude Oil priced at $82.82 per barrel

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore consumer spending, interest rates, world markets, and where oil stands today. Recent data shows consumer spending continues to be elevated while wage increases are slowing, with wage earners feeling the pressure. Households earning $125,000 or less are beginning to experience greater financial strain, but is this a temporary squeeze or could it be the start of a broader shift in consumer behavior? Homes currently on the market are taking longer to sell, and prices have come down somewhat. Would another increase in interest rates push prices down even further, and would that be a good thing for the overall health of the real estate market? Foreign holdings of U.S. financial assets have changed over time. In 2010, foreign investors held 33 percent of U.S. equities. What is that share in 2026? U.S. imports from Asia have risen significantly, but that growth is increasingly coming from countries other than China, while imports from China have declined to their lowest level in years. Which other countries are exporting more to the U.S., and what might the future hold for the trade relationship between the U.S. and China? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• 30-year Mortgage at 6.66%
• S&P 500 Net Profit Margin expected to be 15.7% in Q2 2026
• S. GDP growth rate at 1.5% in Q1

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the overall consumer resilience, the S&P 500, and potential implications for investors. New home inventory has climbed steadily back up to nearly 500,000 units, marking a significant recovery from the historic lows seen a decade ago. Are we finally seeing enough increase in supply to help ease buyer competition, or is inventory still missing the mark? U.S. spending on data center construction has skyrocketed, officially outpacing traditional office and healthcare building markets. Where does this measure alongside educational, and transportation buildings? Meanwhile, PCE inflation measures have cooled dramatically from their historic peaks, settling into a much steadier range heading into mid-2026. Just how long can we expect this balanced inflation environment to last? Federal spending continues to outpace government receipts, maintaining a wide deficit gap even as revenues steadily climb. What could it take to close the distance between incoming tax dollars and national outlays? On the global front, average daily foreign exchange trading volume has climbed past 9.5 trillion dollars, jumping more than a quarter since 2025. What is driving this massive expansion in global currency trading? Aramco has cut its main oil pricing differential to its lowest point since 2020. What could this change in pricing mean for global energy markets and consumer costs ahead? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Headline CPI at 3.5%
• Crude Oil price at $81.22 per barrel
• 30-year mortgage at 6.55%

This week on Inside the Economy, we address what the future may hold for the economy following a period of strong market performance. Strong corporate earnings have helped drive the markets, but new money entering the markets has also played an important role. Where is some of that money being invested? Real disposable income has recently turned negative following a surge in inflation. What short term event caused that increase in inflation? Meanwhile, the personal savings rate has leveled off at 2 percent, which is more consistent with historical norms. What do consumer debt levels look like, including credit card balances and mortgage delinquencies? The mortgage backed securities (MBS) market is currently showing a current coupon MBS yield of 5.3 percent. Since the start of the Iran conflict, yields have moved higher, reflecting reduced market expectations for near-term rate cuts. Is the spread between mortgage backed securities and Treasuries tightening or widening? Finally, at the beginning of the Iran conflict, crude oil prices surged on concerns that the Strait of Hormuz could close. Where do oil prices stand today, and did the increase have any impact on consumers' travel plans? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• 3 Month T. Bill at 3.85%
• 10-year Bond at 4.48%
• Spot Gold price at $4,200

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into the shifting dynamics of consumer spending, housing, capital markets, and global trade. Data shows that retail and gasoline spending have surged to become major drivers of year-over-year spending growth, pushing total monthly growth toward the 6% mark in early 2026 alongside steady services spending. Where would our economic growth stand without these two volatile categories? Meanwhile, this broader economic resilience is spilling into the housing market, where falling mortgage rates and moderating prices have propelled existing home sales to their fastest pace of the year. This raises a critical question for hopeful buyers and investors alike: is this renewed demand about to send median home prices soaring out of reach once again, or can the market maintain its delicate balance? On the capital markets front, net U.S. equity issuance is projected to experience a notable surge throughout the remainder of the year, rising at its fastest pace since at least 1999. While headline-grabbing mega-IPOs like SpaceX are fueling this supply shock, what other massive public debuts are waiting in the wings to reshape investor portfolios? Finally, a historic milestone has been reached in the energy sector, where solar power officially surpassed coal in the U.S. electricity generation mix for the very first time. This monumental shift leaves energy investors with one pressing question: is this the permanent twilight of coal's dominance, or could seasonal grid demands trigger a short-term comeback? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment remains at 4.3%
• Crude Oil dipped below $73.79 per barrel
• CPI Core at 2.9% (YoY)

This week on Inside the Economy, we examine jobs and spending, inflation, and economies outside the United States. Since 2020, hiring demand has increased across the South and in parts of the country such as Idaho, while many Western states have experienced a decline. At the same time, new job creation remains strong. Are there any potential warning signs or anomalies behind the recent uptick in new jobs, or does the data point to continued strength? Inflation has also ticked higher in recent months, driven in part by conflict in the Middle East. Additional pressure has come from rising U.S. beef prices, as drought conditions and shrinking cattle herds continue to constrain supply. What other areas of inflation are being affected by drought conditions? Finally, the world’s three largest LNG exporters, the United States, Australia, and Qatar, account for a combined 252 million tons of exports. How could the global LNG landscape change as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, and which countries may emerge as future players? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment at 4.3%
• Money-Market Fund Assets reach $8.8 Trillion as of May 28^th
• PCE Core CPI at 3.3% (YoY)

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore inflation, interest rates, Venezuela and other trading partners. U.S. inflation accelerated in April, likely driven by continued increases in gasoline prices, groceries, rent, airfare, and other everyday expenses. As inflation pressures persist, small businesses may feel a greater financial strain than larger corporations. New data highlights which states have the highest proportion of employees working for small businesses — where does Colorado rank on the list? Moving onto bond yields, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have fluctuated over the years alongside changing Federal Reserve leadership and evolving economic conditions. New data shows that AI hyperscalers have been rapidly increasing debt issuance to finance the accelerating expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, with 2026 bond sales already exceeding total issuance for all of 2025. Riskier areas of the bond market have recently outperformed, with CCC-rated junk bonds leading year-to-date gains. Could this be a sign of growing investor confidence or a warning that markets may be taking on more risk than they realize? Lastly, Venezuelan dollar bonds have staged a significant rally after years of distress, with prices climbing sharply as investor optimism and geopolitical developments improve sentiment toward the country’s debt market. The question now is, will this momentum continue moving forward? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude oil at $93.88 per barrel
• 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.51%
• Headline CPI at 3.8% (YoY)

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore personal income, S&P 500 profit and earnings growth, and world oil inventories. New data for disposable personal income shows a jump in income, most likely due to government employees returning to work. Personal outlays also increased in February and March, but what might be driving the rise in spending? On the employment front, the market continues to grow with hires increasing month to month while layoffs remain unchanged. At the same time, job openings are declining. What is causing the decline? S&P 500 earnings growth has been trending in a positive direction, with first quarter estimates reaching 27 percent. Interestingly, companies have also increased stock buybacks this year. Which company has announced $100 billion in share repurchases? Lastly, world oil inventories are falling at a record pace amid the Iran war. While the United States is less dependent on Iranian oil, which countries are most affected? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. GDP growth rate at 2.0% in Q1
• 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.37%
• PCE Core CPI at 3.2% (YoY)

This week on Inside the Economy, we assess the cost of living, impact from the Iran conflict, and global markets including global trade. Consumer spending remains positive, yet the pace is beginning to slow alongside a pullback in credit card usage, what could be causing this shift, and could we expect this trend to continue? Historically, wage growth has often differed between high-skilled and low-skilled occupations, with only a few key periods where both moved in tandem. Where are we seeing wage growth trending today, and what does that tell us about the current labor market? As we continue to monitor developments in the Iran conflict, one message has come through clearly—capital markets have appeared resilient. While U.S. stocks have rebounded strongly, how have international equities performed and have they participated in the recovery? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Crude oil is $95.04 per barrel
• Colorado ranked 103 in Cost-of-Living Index 2025 Average
• 30-year mortgage at 6.23%

This week on Inside the Economy, we assess consumer spending, home pricing, and the outlook for the S&P 500. Amid the Iranian conflict, oil prices have increased, but has this impacted consumer spending? Higher-income households have seen after-tax wage growth rise to 5.6% year-over-year; how does that compare to lower-income households? Additionally, according to the Affordability Price Index, consumer affordability appears to have been minimally affected. How could interest rate changes affect affordability going forward? Turning to home prices, they seem reluctant to adjust, which may be attributed to labor and material costs remaining around $200 per square foot. Geographically, where are home prices seeing the largest increases? Finally, the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is near its lowest level in a year and appears healthier relative to earnings, but how many companies have issued positive EPS guidance? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• Core CPI at 2.5% (YoY)
• Nondefense Capital Goods Shipments at 6.4% in February (YoY)
• S&P 500 price to earnings ratio at 20