Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: All Eyes on the Consumer

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer and the continuing expansion of the economy. With retail sales at all-time highs, credit card delinquencies at record lows, and savings accounts at peak levels, the US consumer has all the power in this economy. The question is, how long will these levels persist and will the consumer start to spend more of their hard-earned savings? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Equity markets fell to start 2022
• Crude Oil rises to almost $80
• US becomes top exporter of Liquid Natural Gas
• Unemployment numbers fall under 4%

Inside the Economy: Inflation & Government Spending

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation and government spending. We continue to see inflation at elevated levels, but with low wage growth, a strong dollar, and core services inflation sitting around 4%, where do we see inflation going in the future? State and Local Governments are seeing an uptick in revenues as they continue to get some help at the Federal level. But once the Covid Federal support for the consumer goes away, how much will they be on the hook for? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• S&P 500 Price/Earnings leveling off
• Crude Oil continuing to stay around $70
• Jobless Claims continue to decrease

Inside the Economy: Jobs & Savings

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a few different topics. Jobless claims are trending down and permanent job loss from 2020 has recovered quicker than in 2008 and 2001. Some countries have tapped into strategic oil reserves and the recent price decline reflects the impact of extra supply in the market. Estate Tax revenue has been cut in half since 2017. How will the government look to increase future revenue? Tune in to find out!  

Key Takeaways:

• Savings rate have reversed to pre-pandemic levels
• 10-year treasury is starting to tick up
• M2 Money Supply continues to grow

Inside the Economy: Employment, Inflation & Recovery

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss numerous topics. Jobless claims continue to drop, trending towards pre-pandemic lows. Inflation numbers continue to make headlines. Is inflation coming from the push or pull side? What’s the difference? Revenue of the largest U.S. companies continues to trend upwards. How has the recovery been overseas? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 30-year mortgage rates slightly drop below 3%
• Employment growth has favored higher educated workers
• Oil inventories and demand are trending towards pre pandemic levels

Inside the Economy: The FED & Consumer is King

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the FED and the consumer. With the upcoming FED meeting this week, we are seeing the market has already reacted to the potential of raising of rates in the somewhat near future. But with the yield curve already flattening and mortgage rates rising, what do we anticipate from the FED over the next 12 months? The consumer is still King as we see consumer spending continuing to rise into the holidays, delinquency rates in single family homes moving down, home sales increasing, and unemployment numbers getting back to pre-covid levels. Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Projected US GDP comes in at 2.0 YOY for the 3rd Quarter 2021
• Wages and salaries continue to increase at a steady pace
• Crude Oil up to $83 due to tight supply
• S&P 500 companies with record high profitability

Inside the Economy: The Individual Consumer & Continued Recovery

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the individual consumer and the ongoing recovery. We are continuing to see personal income rise, along with disposable income going to debt payments at all-time lows. Will this continue as we head into the winter months and 2022? We are seeing the fastest recovery in permanent job losses when compared to the last 2 recessions, continued housing price growth, and solid YTD returns in the equity markets. Why are there so many “We are Hiring” signs still on every block? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• US GDP comes in at 6.7 YOY for the 2nd Quarter 2021
• Crude Oil prices hit $80
• Unemployment numbers continue to come down

Inside the Economy: Holiday Spending & Economic Updates

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we gear up to follow and monitor holiday sales. Will this be a record year for sales? The stock market has seen some recent volatility due to a variety of headlines including corporate earnings revisions. Is this pull back healthy for the stock market long term? What is the annual wage of Chinese factory workers and what is the significance? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• 30 year mortgages rise to around 3%
• Household cash and cash-equivalents continue to climb
• Grain prices begin to pull back

Inside the Economy: Inflation & Recovery

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss Inflation and the continued economic recovery. With inflation on everyone’s mind, we discuss where it sits currently, why it’s hanging around 3.6, and what makes us think those levels won’t be here to stay. In regards to the continued economic recovery, we are seeing continued strength in equity markets, increasing rent prices in both apartment and single-family homes, and jobless claims continuing to decrease. Tune in to learn about all this and more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• The yield curve flattens a touch over the past week
• Crude Oil prices stay above 70
• Steady increases in both Employee Compensation and Gov’t Social Benefits

Inside the Economy: Inflation Trends

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to analyze inflation. What are some of the key inflation indicators like money supply and the velocity of money telling us? In other topics, corporate revenues continue to climb. What does this mean for the equity markets? With so many people behind on rent, what will happen to the debt? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• 30 year mortgages stay steady just below 3%
• Texas is by far the biggest oil producer in the U.S. 
• Chinese stocks are at a 2005 low relative to U.S. Stocks

Inside the Economy: Recovery & Consumer Behavior

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the global recovery and consumer behavior. We are seeing the global economy get back on track with a rise in corporate profits, continued low unemployment numbers, and State Revenues recovering to pre-Covid levels. With the Delta Variant becoming more prevalent across the globe, will we see this pattern continue through the end of the year? Consumer behavior is also beginning to turn up as we see increased spending volumes, low average loan balances, and core inflation remaining elevated in the short term. Be sure to tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2nd Quarter GDP comes in around 6.5%
• Gas and oil markets begin to stabilize
• Inventories remain at all-time lows due to supply issues
• Corporate profit margins continue to recover