Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Consumers and the Federal Reserve

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the good news for consumers and bad news for the Federal Reserve. Spending on new manufacturing construction projects has increased. Does this emulate a contracting or expanding economy? How will the Federal Reserve react to the ISM Survey and Manufacturing data? Home prices are at a stabilization point and still have a negative year-over-year percent change. Will the consumer start flooding back in the market? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• ISM Survey at 50.3
• Durable Goods increased to 1.4
• Core PCE inflation rate slowed to 2.8% (YOY)

Inside the Economy: Labor, U.S. Debt, and Foreclosures

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore where the economic slowdown is coming and where it is not. Household credit card debt has increased over the past few years. The outstanding interest payments for non-mortgage debt even caught up with mortgage interest payments. Does this emulate a struggling consumer? Have consumers gone delinquent? Mortgage debt is steady at 50% of GDP. What is the foreclosure inventory as a comparison?

 

Key Takeaways:

• Core CPI at 3.8
• Job openings fell to 8.9 million in January
• S. Foreign workforce increased 5% (YOY)

Inside the Economy: Households, Commercial Real Estate, and the Dollar

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we assess household net worth and assets, commercial real estate, and the Dollar. The U.S. consumer has a strong balance sheet; specifically, with checking and savings. What does that mean for overall market exposure? The trade-weighted dollar continues to drive upwards and proving to still be a strong dollar. What does a strong dollar mean on the global scale? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• 10-year bond rate is steady at 4.25%
• S. GDP at 3.2% in Q4 of 2023
• S. Fed Trade-Weighted Broad Dollar Index at 121

Inside the Economy: U.S. Household Debt, Labor, and Markets

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the various levels of Consumer debt and trends in the Market. Recent news has shown the appearance of layoffs in the market, but overall layoff numbers continue at 1%. Are we in crisis mode in the labor market? U.S. Household Debt has risen; however, most is held in Mortgage debt. Is the increased consumer debt an issue according to household liabilities and category of debt? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• S. Household Debt at $19 Trillion
• Bank Deposits equal $17.5 Trillion
• S&P 500 reached a 1.6% year over year Growth Rate

Inside the Economy: Labor, U.S. Debt, and Trade

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor, debt and where the strain is starting to show. The U.S. debt levels are trending lower after recent infusions during the pandemic and reaching pre Covid levels relative to GDP. Should debt levels be a top priority? Unemployment continues to stay in the 3% range. Will unemployment claims increase with a changing marketplace? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• Core PCE Inflation under 3%
• ISM Manufacturing index nearing 50
• 4^th Quarter U.S. GDP grew at a 3.3% annual rate

Inside the Economy: The Market, Housing and Jobs

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to evaluate the flood of new data. Inflation is still trending lower, and the job market continues to be close to full employment. Will the Fed engineer a soft landing? Mortgage rates are also trending lower; however, housing inventory remains at all-time lows. When will things change? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil prices back near $75 a barrel
• Mortgage rates hovering around 6.5%
• 10-year above 4%

Inside the Economy: The Consumer and Inflation

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we talk about some important economic data. GDP estimates continue to be above trend and unemployment remains low. However, the Fed seems to be content with inflation data trending lower and many are speculating on future rate cuts. How will this impact the stock and bond market in 2024? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil prices drop below $70/barrel
• Mortgage rates trending below 7%
• Headline inflation trends lower

Inside the Economy: Labor & Financial Headwinds

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and financial headwinds. Jobless claims and unemployment remain relatively stable, but how has the labor market changed since 2020 and where will the labor market go from here? Inflation continues to soften, yet as we look to 2024 where do we see potential headwinds to the economy? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 30-year mortgage down to 7%
• Oil hovers around $75
• Unemployment rate at 3.7%

Inside the Economy: Profit Taking and the Great Transition

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a variety of economic news. The Fed has one more meeting to round out 2023. All eyes will be on if they continue to hold rates and the impact on unemployment and inflation. In other news, the housing market experienced the lowest number of existing home sales in more than a decade. Will housing prices continue to be resilient in the higher rate environment? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil prices steady around $75 a barrel
• Mortgage rates stuck in the mid 7%’s
• Headline inflation trends lower

Inside the Economy: Labor & Interest Rates

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and interest rates. With jobless claims and unemployment remaining relatively stable, how have hourly earnings changed since the pandemic and what does this mean for the labor market as we look ahead? As interest rates have risen from previous multi year lows, what does a higher interest rate environment look like for housing, commercial real estate, and U.S. loans? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil touches $80
• Unemployment rate at 3.9%
• 30-year mortgages above 7.5%