Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending, Jobs, New Home Sales, and Fed Actions

This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer spending, employment trends, new home sales data, and recent actions by the Federal Reserve. Despite concerns, there is minimal evidence that hiring has slowed drastically, and layoffs remain low. But are consumers starting to feel pressure when it comes to spending, particularly in the context of inflation? We also explore the current level of bank deposits and the impact of the September rate cut. With the possibility of two more rate cuts in 2025, is there justification—perhaps within the housing data? Lastly, corporate bond spreads aren’t widening to the extent seen during the 2008 financial crisis or the pandemic era. Where does the 10-year Treasury yield stand relative to its historical average? Tune in to learn more.

Key Takeaways:

• 10-year bond yield at 4.18%
• Federal Funds Rate in September at 4.25%
• Manufacturing Production Index in August at 101.0

Inside the Economy: Employment, Stock Valuations, and the U.S. Bond Market

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at employment trends, the pending rate cut, stock valuations, and the U.S. bond market. Jobless claims are rising and the unemployment rate has ticked up. Could fewer hours worked per employee be part of the story? Equity valuations are reaching levels not seen in decades. With the S&P 500 trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.4, we explore whether a correction could occur or if there might be room for further growth. Meanwhile, in the bond market, commercial paper issuance has surged back to levels last seen in 2006. What could be driving this renewed activity after nearly two decades? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. Core Consumer Price Index at 3.1% (YOY)
• ISM Service Survey reached 52.0 %
• 10-year bond yield at 4.01%

Inside the Economy: Employment, Housing, and Inflation

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss employment growth, the housing market, and the latest inflation data. Year-over-year job growth has dipped below 1%. Could this be a sign of a weakening labor market or a return to pre-pandemic norms? In housing, new home sales reveal a growing gap between inventory and buyer demand, raising questions about whether potential rate cuts could provide relief or if the market is simply adjusting after years of high prices. Meanwhile, inflation has ticked up slightly, but GDP remains relatively strong in the 3% range. Is the U.S. consumer starting to feel the pressure? Tune in to learn more.

 

Key Takeaways:

• PCE Core Inflation at 2.9% (YOY)
• S. GDP growth rate at 3.3% in Q2
• 10-year bond yield at 4.22%

Inside the Economy: Inflation, The Prudent Consumer, and Tariffs

This week on Inside the Economy, we examine key developments in the latest economic report, with a focus on the Consumer Price Index and the primary drivers of inflation. We’ll also explore changes in average hourly earnings compared to a year ago, alongside trends in total debt balances. Are consumers spending money they already have, or might they be increasingly relying on debt? One of the most pressing topics right now is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. What outcome seems most likely by year’s end? And in a surprising shift, talk of a potential recession has nearly vanished from headlines, reaching near record lows in media mentions. What’s behind this dramatic change in tone? Tune in for insight and analysis on all this and more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. Core CPI rose to 3.1%
• Mortgage debt now accounts for 70% of total household debt
• Investors with 3-9 properties represent the largest share of single-family home purchases

Inside the Economy: Labor Market, Housing and Delinquencies, and Energy

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at key developments in the labor market, housing, and energy. Nonfarm employment growth in the U.S. continues to slow. Are we seeing a return to pre-pandemic norms, or is something else driving this trend? Delinquencies are rising among upper income borrowers. How does this compare to lower income households, and could it point to broader representation of which jobs are not hiring? Federal Government employment is also declining. Which jobs are being impacted more and is it impacting public services offered by the government? On the corporate side, earnings have generally been strong, and markets appear to be adjusting in response to those results. What was the only sector to score negative earnings growth? Lastly, electricity costs are up approximately 15-20%. This is not due to electric vehicles or auto manufacturers, but instead a new source of demand that is straining the grid. What is fueling this surge? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• S. GDP growth rate at 3.0% in Q1
• Federal Employment in July at 2.9M
• European Union’s share of total U.S. Imports at 20.2% from January to May 2025

Inside the Economy: Consumer Price Index, Real House Prices, U.S. Prices, and China

This week on Inside the Economy, we address the Consumer Price Index mainly looking at primary shelter, core goods, and U.S. retail sales. In the latest core consumer price index report, both primary shelter costs and core good prices continue to decline. Meanwhile, the potential impact of new tariffs is continuing to spark debate. How might they shape the inflation outlook moving forward? Real house prices are finally easing after years of steady increases. Could the 30-year fixed mortgage follow suit? On the earnings front, second quarter earnings are projected to grow just 2.8%, marking the lowest expected increase in the past two years. At the same time, expected volatility in the S&P 500 has dropped to its lowest level since February. Curious about how much interest the U.S. government is paying on its debt? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• S. Federal Government interest payments surpass $1 trillion
• Japan’s GDP per capita has declined over the last decade
• Chinese exports at record high

Inside the Economy: Housing Market, Stock Market, Electricity, and the Dollar

This week on Inside the Economy, we address the housing market in terms of inventory, stock market performance, the dollar, and the pace of electricity generation in the U.S. The inventory of new homes for sale increased to 507,000 in May. How do Colorado and Denver compare to other markets in terms of active listings? What are the numbers of first-time home buyers? Electricity generation continues to trend upward, showing no signs of slowing down. One way to keep pace with rising electricity demand is by building nuclear reactors. Which states are exploring reactor production? Turning to the dollar, its price has fallen, but history shows present weakness is not extreme, and it may still have more room to fall. What is the current U.S. share of global GDP, and how did that share shift when China joined the World Trade Organization? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• New Orders for Durable Goods up 16.4%
• S. GDP growth rate at -.5% in Q1
• Layoff and Discharge Rate at 1.04% in May

Inside the Economy: Housing, Immigration, and Treasuries

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the housing market, immigration, and the Treasury market. Mortgage rates have been hovering around 7%. Has the heightened level of interest rates negatively impacted existing home sales? New construction of single-family homes stands at over 900,000; how does that compare to multifamily construction? In other news, U.S. immigration trends for green card holders and temporary visa recipients have remained steady or slightly increased, but has immigration among other foreign nationals declined, possibly due to recent policy shifts? Meanwhile, the 30-year yield has begun to creep down from its peak in May. Could Treasuries still be considered a safe haven for both domestic and foreign investment? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Head CPI Inflation at 2.4% (YOY)
• 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.81%
• Existing Home Sales at $4M in May

Inside the Economy: Stock Market Performance, Corporate America, and Debt

This week on Inside the Economy, we address stock market performance, corporate America, current trade and tariff developments, and government debt. The S&P 500 posted its best May performance in 35 years, challenging the old saying, “Sell in May and go away.” Which companies led the index during this rally? How have capital expenditures evolved among large technology firms in recent years? We also explore how Asian economies have significantly increased their net purchases of U.S. bonds and stocks since 1997—a trend largely driven by their export relationships with the U.S. and subsequent investments in U.S. Treasuries. Has this pattern changed since the onset of trade tensions? Finally, as tariffs increase the cost of imported goods and services, could businesses begin passing those costs on to consumers? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment at 4.2%
• 30-year bond yield at 4.95%
• S. Debt-to-GFP ratio is 123% as of April 2025

Inside the Economy: Tariffs, European Union, Interest Rates, and Markets

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss tariffs, trade relations with the European Union, interest rates in the U.S. and abroad, and global stock market performance. U.S. Customs duties reached an all-time high, generating $25.5 billion in revenue in May. What sectors are the primary contributors to this surge? In recent developments, the U.S. and the E.U. have begun discussions on future trade agreements. As our largest trading partner—accounting for roughly 5% of U.S. GDP—what is currently the largest import from the E.U.? Turning to the bond market, the 30-year Treasury yield has hit both a yearly and decade high. While Moody’s recent downgrade played a role, what other factors might have contributed to the spike in yields? Finally, we explore market expectations for interest rate changes. How much easing is currently priced in based on 12-month federal funds rate futures? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• 30-year bond yield at 5.03%
• Head CPI Inflation at 2.3% (YOY)
• Bank of Japan Policy Rate at .50% in May