Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Labor & Interest Rates

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and interest rates. With jobless claims and unemployment remaining relatively stable, how have hourly earnings changed since the pandemic and what does this mean for the labor market as we look ahead? As interest rates have risen from previous multi year lows, what does a higher interest rate environment look like for housing, commercial real estate, and U.S. loans? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil touches $80
• Unemployment rate at 3.9%
• 30-year mortgages above 7.5%

Inside the Economy: The Fed and Interest Rates

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss an array of economic news. Consumer spending is still strong and retail sales continue to climb. Even as the Fed raises rates, the housing market has stayed strong, and unemployment remains low. What, if anything, will begin to slow or influence the Fed to lower rates? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• Bond yields continue to rise
• Oil prices rise again
• Mortgage rates approach 8%

Inside the Economy: Economic Hurdles & Budget Deficit

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss some economic hurdles in the system, as well as the budget deficit. Savings rates and new mortgage applications have dropped below pre-pandemic levels, along with an increasing office vacancy rate. What does this mean for the economy as we move into the 4^th quarter?  The budget deficit has been a main theme this year, but what are the specifics of where the government collects its revenue, current federal spending, and the US budget as a share of GDP? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Core CPI inflation at 4.1
• Oil below $90
• Unemployment rate hovering at 3.8
• 30-year mortgages above 7.5%

Inside the Economy: Consumer Savings & Globalization

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at consumer savings & globalization. Despite strong consumer demand and student loan payments starting back up, household savings remain at pre-pandemic highs. With an everchanging global economy, the US has diversified imports away from China and continues to increase industrial robots when it comes to domestic manufacturing. What does this mean as we look to the future? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Core PCE inflation comes in at 3.9
• Oil stays above $90
• Unemployment rate hovering at 3.8
• 30-year mortgages above 7.3%

Inside the Economy: Inflation and the Fed

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we address new economic data. CPI jumped month over month, largely due to the increase in oil prices. How will this impact the Fed’s decisions for the rest of 2023? Overall, the economy is moving along, due to a strong consumer. Will the restart of student loan payments change this? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Bond yields continue to tick up.
• Oil prices climb above $90 a barrel.
• Mortgage rates elevated above 7%.

Inside the Economy: Wages & Housing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at wages and housing. Wage and salary growth has moved back to pre-pandemic levels, with the highest income households seeing the slowest growth, alongside declining job openings numbers. With virtually all rent measures currently on the rise, home prices have also continued to rise despite the recent increase in mortgage rates. Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Headline inflation hovers around 3
• Oil back above $80
• Unemployment rate at 3.8
• 30 year mortgages above 7.15%

Inside the Economy: The Consumer & Housing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to wade through the summer doldrums. The consumer is still spending and enjoying historically elevated home equity values. As the Fed continues to raise rates, yields across the board also rise. Mortgages continue to climb, and longer-term treasury yields slip higher. How long until inflation and the cost of money normalize? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Bond yields continue to rise.
• Oil prices slide below $80 per barrel.
• Mortgage rates inched up above 7%.

Inside the Economy: The Economy is Slowing Down

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss some key data pieces. From a year ago, inflation has trended lower, unemployment has stayed the same, and treasury yields continue to climb. The Fed is continuing to raise rates as they receive traditionally conflicting data. Is inflation under control and how high do they need to go with the cost of money?  Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Bond yields continue to rise.
• Oil is around $80 per barrel.
• Mortgage rates inched up to 6.9%.

Inside the Economy: Current State of Affairs

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at the lending market, housing, the Federal Reserve, and other economic data. Lending data is showing delinquencies at record lows, as we prepare for student loan payments to start back up in September. Industrial production in the US has remained high, and with a potential Fed increase of 0.25% in rates and federal outlays outpacing revenues, what does that mean for the economy as we move further into the third quarter? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Headline inflation hits 3
• Oil moves above $75
• Unemployment rate hovers around 3.6

Inside the Economy: Unemployment & Personal Savings

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at unemployment and personal savings. Unemployment has continued to be a driver for the Fed decisions and after recently ticking back up, the unemployment rate has begun to slide down. What is causing such a robust employment market? With inflation on its slow decline, we are starting to see personal savings begin to move upward. How does the housing and rental market play a role in this going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Q1 GDP revised up to 2
• 2-year bond approaches 5%
• Oil moves back above $70
• Mortgage rates cross over 6.8%