Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Wages, Housing, U.S. Financial Conditions

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore wages, housing prices and mortgages, and the U.S. financial conditions. The U.S. average hourly earnings report for May came in with a reading of 4%. Why are year-over-year wages still high? What would lowering rates do for wages? As for housing, renters are not experiencing an increased burden regarding their income spent on housing. How does that compare to the homeowner’s burden? In other news, U.S. financial conditions are easing with less liquidity issues. What was the U.S. financial conditions index at when the Federal Reserve started interest rate hikes? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• ISM Services at 53.8
• Unemployment at 4.0%
• Aggregate delinquency rates at 3.2%

Inside the Economy: Consumer Confidence, Mortgage Rates, and U.S. Markets

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer confidence, mortgage rates, and U.S. Markets. The May consumer confidence index report shows a higher than anticipated reading. Who is typically surveyed for the consumer confidence index report? As for interest rates, the Federal Reserve Board forecasts rates to decrease to 4% in the next two years. What is the forecast for mortgage rates? Lastly, Foreign investments in U.S. Markets eclipse $25 Trillion. Do countries like Singapore, Australia, or the U.K. have additional monies for future investment? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Consumer Confidence Index at 102
• 30-Year Mortgage rate at 6.94%
• Foreign Investments in U.S. Markets surpass $25T

Inside the Economy: Employment, Currency, and Natural Gas

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate employment, currency, and the importance of Natural Gas as a U.S. export. The recent job openings report shows a continued trend downward. What does this tell us about the trajectory of the U.S. economy? In other news, the U.S. dollar index continues to strengthen. How do global payments denominated in the U.S. dollar compare to other currencies such as the Euro? Lastly, the U.S. is a major exporter of Natural Gas. How much supply is left to keep the trend going? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Total job openings at 8.5M
• S. Dollar Index at 106.2
• ISM Manufacturing index falls below 50

Inside the Economy: Debt, Housing, and Federal Government

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss personal interest expense and changes in household debt. What category has the highest percent change from 2023? New home sales have slowed due to higher interest rates, but what does this mean for delinquency rates? Federal net interest outlays are climbing higher in amount as compared to historical data. However, how does the near 3% share of GDP compare to the past and is it necessarily bad for the overall economy? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• S. GDP growth slowed to a 1.6% rate in Q1
• Personal interest expense is approximately $500B
• 30-year mortgage at 7.17%

Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending, Bonds, and Imports

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we monitor the increased consumer spending in tandem with rising delinquencies on mortgages. Is the Federal Reserve going to consider any rate hike movement before year-end? Consumers are still flooding into the stock market, alongside money flowing into money market bond funds. U.S. goods imported have remained steady or on the rise for most countries. What country is on the downward trend? 

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. Head CPI at 3.5 (YOY)
• Crude Oil at $83.71
• Credit Card account revolving balances exceed $600B

Inside the Economy: Consumers and the Federal Reserve

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the good news for consumers and bad news for the Federal Reserve. Spending on new manufacturing construction projects has increased. Does this emulate a contracting or expanding economy? How will the Federal Reserve react to the ISM Survey and Manufacturing data? Home prices are at a stabilization point and still have a negative year-over-year percent change. Will the consumer start flooding back in the market? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• ISM Survey at 50.3
• Durable Goods increased to 1.4
• Core PCE inflation rate slowed to 2.8% (YOY)

Inside the Economy: Labor, U.S. Debt, and Foreclosures

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore where the economic slowdown is coming and where it is not. Household credit card debt has increased over the past few years. The outstanding interest payments for non-mortgage debt even caught up with mortgage interest payments. Does this emulate a struggling consumer? Have consumers gone delinquent? Mortgage debt is steady at 50% of GDP. What is the foreclosure inventory as a comparison?

 

Key Takeaways:

• Core CPI at 3.8
• Job openings fell to 8.9 million in January
• S. Foreign workforce increased 5% (YOY)

Inside the Economy: Households, Commercial Real Estate, and the Dollar

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we assess household net worth and assets, commercial real estate, and the Dollar. The U.S. consumer has a strong balance sheet; specifically, with checking and savings. What does that mean for overall market exposure? The trade-weighted dollar continues to drive upwards and proving to still be a strong dollar. What does a strong dollar mean on the global scale? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• 10-year bond rate is steady at 4.25%
• S. GDP at 3.2% in Q4 of 2023
• S. Fed Trade-Weighted Broad Dollar Index at 121

Inside the Economy: U.S. Household Debt, Labor, and Markets

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the various levels of Consumer debt and trends in the Market. Recent news has shown the appearance of layoffs in the market, but overall layoff numbers continue at 1%. Are we in crisis mode in the labor market? U.S. Household Debt has risen; however, most is held in Mortgage debt. Is the increased consumer debt an issue according to household liabilities and category of debt? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• S. Household Debt at $19 Trillion
• Bank Deposits equal $17.5 Trillion
• S&P 500 reached a 1.6% year over year Growth Rate

Inside the Economy: Labor, U.S. Debt, and Trade

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor, debt and where the strain is starting to show. The U.S. debt levels are trending lower after recent infusions during the pandemic and reaching pre Covid levels relative to GDP. Should debt levels be a top priority? Unemployment continues to stay in the 3% range. Will unemployment claims increase with a changing marketplace? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• Core PCE Inflation under 3%
• ISM Manufacturing index nearing 50
• 4^th Quarter U.S. GDP grew at a 3.3% annual rate