Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: The Elephant in the Room

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to look for meaningful changes in the economic data. CPI numbers continue to trend lower as energy and food continue to normalize. Student debt payments have garnered people’s attention as payments could come back online after August. How will this impact inflation?  Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Bond yields stable
• Oil drops to $69 per barrel
• Mortgage rates inch up to 6.7%

Inside the Economy: Economy in Waiting

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at several pieces of economic data, including inflation and housing. Inflation continues its slow decline and approaches the Fed Funds target rate, but is it enough to sway the Fed to pause at their upcoming meeting? Median home prices have started ticking upward, mortgage delinquencies are at record lows, and new mortgages are around 6.7%. Has the worst in the housing market passed? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment increases to 3.7%
• 2-year bond over 4.5%
• Oil hovers around $70 a barrel
• Mortgage rates above 6.7%

Inside the Economy: Summer Doldrums

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at an array of economic data, most of it showing signs of a decently healthy economy. The Fed continues to fight inflation with a 0.25% increase next month still on the table. The debt ceiling debate seems to have a resolution as a deal is being finalized. Where will inflation and the Fed’s policy take us into the summer months and end of the year? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Bond yields on the rise
• Oil around $74 per barrel
• Mortgage rates around 6.5%

Inside the Economy: Tension in the System

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at inflation, consumer spending, jobs, and other economic data. With a decline in consumer spending, inflation continues to lower after the most recent 0.25% increase from the FED. Job openings have decreased across a majority of industries, and with the housing market seeing low purchase and refinance activity, where do we see the job and housing market going as we move further into the second quarter? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year bond drops below 4%
• Oil drops to $70 a barrel
• Mortgage rates remain above 6.25%

Inside the Economy: Much Ado About Nothing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at income, housing and other economic data. ISM manufacturing data ticked up a bit, while GDP estimates for Q1 came in lower. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates 0.25% this month as inflation numbers continue to stay above 5%. What will it take to fight inflation and avoid a recession? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 3-month T-Bill above 5%
• Oil drops to below $75 per barrel
• Mortgage rates still above 6.25%

Inside the Economy: The Consumer

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a look at the consumer and financial stress in the system. Headline inflation came down year over year in the month of March. Many of the supply side contributors seem to be returning to pre-pandemic levels, however the consumer seems to be staying strong. How will this impact the Fed’s decision making for the rest of the year?   Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year Treasury around 4%
• Oil on the rise to about $83 per barrel
• Mortgage rates still above 6.25%

Inside the Economy: Banking & Inflation

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss banking and inflation. Money market funds have seen large inflows over the past 2 months following the issues in the banking industry, but with the Fed’s balance sheet growing as well, what does this mean for the economy going forward? Inflation continues to soften with lower rents and supply chain procedures getting back to pre-pandemic levels.  Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Q4 2022 GDP estimate 2.6%
• Oil prices bump over $80
• Unemployment remains at 3.6%

Inside the Economy: The Bank Circus

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the headline news of two bank failures as well as other economic data. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was taken into conservatorship by the regulators and forced the FDIC and Fed to act. How will this impact monetary policy in the coming months? Unemployment was mixed and other data points to inflation continuing to trend downward in the right direction.  Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year Treasury falls to around 4%
• Unemployment up at 3.6%
• Mortgage rates still around 6.6%

Inside the Economy: The Consumer & Inflation

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer and inflation. Over the past 2 years we have seen household savings decrease and shelter prices increase, yet we have seen historical wage growth and strong consumer spending. As the Federal Reserve continues its fight against inflation, what does that mean for the consumer and prices as we move further into 2023?  Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Q4 2022 GDP estimate 2.7%
• Unemployment remains at 3.4%
• Mortgages bump up to 6.6%

Inside the Economy: Pesky Inflation

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss important economic data. Inflation is trending lower, however it’s uncertain what it will take to achieve the Fed’s 2% target.  The housing market continues to soften, and corporate earnings are projected to be lower for 2023. State governments seem to have plenty of funding. Tune in to find out more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year treasury yield climbs higher above 4.5%
• 30-year mortgages move to 6.32%
• Oil drops to around $76 per barrel