Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Jobs & the Federal Reserve

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss jobs and the Federal Reserve. Jobless claims continue to decrease and unemployment remains at record lows. With a slowing economy, what will that mean for employment for 2023?  The Federal Reserve continues to raise rates with their most recent 0.25% increase in January. Will the data soften enough in 2023 to cause them to pause, or will they continue to raise rates? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Headline inflation lowers to 6.5
• Unemployment down to 3.4
• Mortgages hover around 6%

Inside the Economy: Labor Market & Housing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss important economic data. The labor market remains strong even as the Fed raises rates. The housing market continues to soften and corporate earnings per share are projected to be lower for 2023. Will we see a recession this year? Tune in to find out more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year treasury yield remains above 4%
• 30-year mortgages move under 7%
• Oil drops to around $80 per barrel

Inside the Economy: The Federal Reserve

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve. With inflation beginning to soften, and a Federal Reserve meeting upcoming in late January, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve to see what they do next. Will softening data in the housing, labor, and services market be enough to relax the FED, or will they continue to be aggressive with interest rates as they start the new year? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2022 Q3 GDP adjusted higher
• Unemployment down to 3.5
• Mortgages get back to 6.5%

Inside the Economy: Consumer & Corporate Health

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the economic health of the consumer and corporations. For the consumer, hourly wages have leveled off and personal savings have decreased. Housing continues to be a sticking point for the consumer with the house-price index coming down and home equity withdrawal on the rise. Corporations on the other hand show strong profit margins despite sticky inflation, but what does that look like for 2023? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil drops to low $70s
• 3^rd Quarter GDP revised up to 2.9
• Mortgage rates under 6.5%

Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending and the Inflation Battle

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer spending and the progress in the inflation battle. Inflation data, represented by the CPI index, has trended down. However, unemployment remains low lending it’s way to sustained strength in consumer spending. Will the conflicting data keep the Federal Reserve on their rate hike campaign, or will they slow down going into 2023? Tune in to find out more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year treasury yield remains above 4%
• 30-year mortgages move under 7%
• Oil drops to around $80 per barrel

Inside the Economy: U.S. Economy & the Stock Market

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the U.S. economy and the stock market. With the most recent year over year inflation number coming in lower than expected, what does that mean for the U.S. economy moving forward and will inflation continue to soften as we move into 2023? The stock market has shown some life over the past 2 weeks, but how do the Mid Term elections and a strong dollar fit into the equation? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil hits $88 a barrel
• Unemployment ticks up slightly
• New mortgage rates above 7

Inside the Economy: Consumer, Corporate and Government Wallets

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at U.S. consumer, corporate and government data. Consumers have more in their checking and savings then they did pre pandemic. Inflation seems to be impacting some ways in which we spend but the aggregate remains up. Corporate profit margins remain elevated. Will the estimates continue to trend up into 2023? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year treasury yield is above 4%
• 30-year mortgages are above 7%
• The federal deficit contracts from 2020 and 2021

Inside the Economy: The Federal Reserve & Housing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve & housing. With the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in early November, the economy and the consumer are waiting to see where interest rates go. Will it be enough to dampen inflation as we move closer to 2023? The housing market continues to soften with mortgage rates above 7% and new loan applications at pre-pandemic lows. Why have prices remained steady and what does that mean for the housing market going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil is back above $85 per barrel
• Jobless claims remain at lows
• Outstanding consumer credit is on the rise
• Manufacturing remains strong

Inside the Economy: The Next Phase in the Inflation Struggle

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a thorough look at the data. Treasury yields have continued to rise as the Federal Reserve maintains their mandate to break inflation and stabilize prices. The consumer is still spending, and the job market continues to remain strong. Where will the cost of money be at the end of the year? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year treasury yield is above 4%
• 30-year mortgages are closing in on 7%
• Oil continues to decline, down almost 40% YTD

Inside the Economy: The Consumer & U.S. Economy

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer & the U.S. economy. With inventory levels on the rise, the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates, and gas prices moving back down, the U.S. consumer is hoping for inflation to cool as we move into the end of the year. With many saying that the U.S. Economy is heading for a recession, what does that actually mean for the stock market and what can we learn from the past? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil drops below $90
• 30-year mortgage rates above 6%
• Natural gas prices continue to rise
• Mortgage delinquencies & foreclosures at all-time lows