Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: The Market, Housing and Jobs

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to evaluate the flood of new data. Inflation is still trending lower, and the job market continues to be close to full employment. Will the Fed engineer a soft landing? Mortgage rates are also trending lower; however, housing inventory remains at all-time lows. When will things change? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil prices back near $75 a barrel
• Mortgage rates hovering around 6.5%
• 10-year above 4%

Inside the Economy: The Consumer and Inflation

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we talk about some important economic data. GDP estimates continue to be above trend and unemployment remains low. However, the Fed seems to be content with inflation data trending lower and many are speculating on future rate cuts. How will this impact the stock and bond market in 2024? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil prices drop below $70/barrel
• Mortgage rates trending below 7%
• Headline inflation trends lower

Inside the Economy: Labor & Financial Headwinds

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and financial headwinds. Jobless claims and unemployment remain relatively stable, but how has the labor market changed since 2020 and where will the labor market go from here? Inflation continues to soften, yet as we look to 2024 where do we see potential headwinds to the economy? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 30-year mortgage down to 7%
• Oil hovers around $75
• Unemployment rate at 3.7%

Inside the Economy: Profit Taking and the Great Transition

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a variety of economic news. The Fed has one more meeting to round out 2023. All eyes will be on if they continue to hold rates and the impact on unemployment and inflation. In other news, the housing market experienced the lowest number of existing home sales in more than a decade. Will housing prices continue to be resilient in the higher rate environment? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil prices steady around $75 a barrel
• Mortgage rates stuck in the mid 7%’s
• Headline inflation trends lower

Inside the Economy: Labor & Interest Rates

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and interest rates. With jobless claims and unemployment remaining relatively stable, how have hourly earnings changed since the pandemic and what does this mean for the labor market as we look ahead? As interest rates have risen from previous multi year lows, what does a higher interest rate environment look like for housing, commercial real estate, and U.S. loans? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil touches $80
• Unemployment rate at 3.9%
• 30-year mortgages above 7.5%

Inside the Economy: The Fed and Interest Rates

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss an array of economic news. Consumer spending is still strong and retail sales continue to climb. Even as the Fed raises rates, the housing market has stayed strong, and unemployment remains low. What, if anything, will begin to slow or influence the Fed to lower rates? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• Bond yields continue to rise
• Oil prices rise again
• Mortgage rates approach 8%

Inside the Economy: Economic Hurdles & Budget Deficit

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss some economic hurdles in the system, as well as the budget deficit. Savings rates and new mortgage applications have dropped below pre-pandemic levels, along with an increasing office vacancy rate. What does this mean for the economy as we move into the 4^th quarter?  The budget deficit has been a main theme this year, but what are the specifics of where the government collects its revenue, current federal spending, and the US budget as a share of GDP? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Core CPI inflation at 4.1
• Oil below $90
• Unemployment rate hovering at 3.8
• 30-year mortgages above 7.5%

Inside the Economy: Consumer Savings & Globalization

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at consumer savings & globalization. Despite strong consumer demand and student loan payments starting back up, household savings remain at pre-pandemic highs. With an everchanging global economy, the US has diversified imports away from China and continues to increase industrial robots when it comes to domestic manufacturing. What does this mean as we look to the future? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Core PCE inflation comes in at 3.9
• Oil stays above $90
• Unemployment rate hovering at 3.8
• 30-year mortgages above 7.3%

Inside the Economy: Inflation and the Fed

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we address new economic data. CPI jumped month over month, largely due to the increase in oil prices. How will this impact the Fed’s decisions for the rest of 2023? Overall, the economy is moving along, due to a strong consumer. Will the restart of student loan payments change this? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Bond yields continue to tick up.
• Oil prices climb above $90 a barrel.
• Mortgage rates elevated above 7%.

Inside the Economy: Wages & Housing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at wages and housing. Wage and salary growth has moved back to pre-pandemic levels, with the highest income households seeing the slowest growth, alongside declining job openings numbers. With virtually all rent measures currently on the rise, home prices have also continued to rise despite the recent increase in mortgage rates. Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Headline inflation hovers around 3
• Oil back above $80
• Unemployment rate at 3.8
• 30 year mortgages above 7.15%