Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: The Consumer & Housing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to wade through the summer doldrums. The consumer is still spending and enjoying historically elevated home equity values. As the Fed continues to raise rates, yields across the board also rise. Mortgages continue to climb, and longer-term treasury yields slip higher. How long until inflation and the cost of money normalize? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Bond yields continue to rise.
• Oil prices slide below $80 per barrel.
• Mortgage rates inched up above 7%.

Inside the Economy: The Economy is Slowing Down

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss some key data pieces. From a year ago, inflation has trended lower, unemployment has stayed the same, and treasury yields continue to climb. The Fed is continuing to raise rates as they receive traditionally conflicting data. Is inflation under control and how high do they need to go with the cost of money?  Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Bond yields continue to rise.
• Oil is around $80 per barrel.
• Mortgage rates inched up to 6.9%.

Inside the Economy: Current State of Affairs

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at the lending market, housing, the Federal Reserve, and other economic data. Lending data is showing delinquencies at record lows, as we prepare for student loan payments to start back up in September. Industrial production in the US has remained high, and with a potential Fed increase of 0.25% in rates and federal outlays outpacing revenues, what does that mean for the economy as we move further into the third quarter? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Headline inflation hits 3
• Oil moves above $75
• Unemployment rate hovers around 3.6

Inside the Economy: Unemployment & Personal Savings

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at unemployment and personal savings. Unemployment has continued to be a driver for the Fed decisions and after recently ticking back up, the unemployment rate has begun to slide down. What is causing such a robust employment market? With inflation on its slow decline, we are starting to see personal savings begin to move upward. How does the housing and rental market play a role in this going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Q1 GDP revised up to 2
• 2-year bond approaches 5%
• Oil moves back above $70
• Mortgage rates cross over 6.8%

Inside the Economy: The Elephant in the Room

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to look for meaningful changes in the economic data. CPI numbers continue to trend lower as energy and food continue to normalize. Student debt payments have garnered people’s attention as payments could come back online after August. How will this impact inflation?  Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Bond yields stable
• Oil drops to $69 per barrel
• Mortgage rates inch up to 6.7%

Inside the Economy: Economy in Waiting

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at several pieces of economic data, including inflation and housing. Inflation continues its slow decline and approaches the Fed Funds target rate, but is it enough to sway the Fed to pause at their upcoming meeting? Median home prices have started ticking upward, mortgage delinquencies are at record lows, and new mortgages are around 6.7%. Has the worst in the housing market passed? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment increases to 3.7%
• 2-year bond over 4.5%
• Oil hovers around $70 a barrel
• Mortgage rates above 6.7%

Inside the Economy: Summer Doldrums

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at an array of economic data, most of it showing signs of a decently healthy economy. The Fed continues to fight inflation with a 0.25% increase next month still on the table. The debt ceiling debate seems to have a resolution as a deal is being finalized. Where will inflation and the Fed’s policy take us into the summer months and end of the year? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Bond yields on the rise
• Oil around $74 per barrel
• Mortgage rates around 6.5%

Inside the Economy: Tension in the System

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at inflation, consumer spending, jobs, and other economic data. With a decline in consumer spending, inflation continues to lower after the most recent 0.25% increase from the FED. Job openings have decreased across a majority of industries, and with the housing market seeing low purchase and refinance activity, where do we see the job and housing market going as we move further into the second quarter? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year bond drops below 4%
• Oil drops to $70 a barrel
• Mortgage rates remain above 6.25%

Inside the Economy: Much Ado About Nothing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at income, housing and other economic data. ISM manufacturing data ticked up a bit, while GDP estimates for Q1 came in lower. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates 0.25% this month as inflation numbers continue to stay above 5%. What will it take to fight inflation and avoid a recession? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 3-month T-Bill above 5%
• Oil drops to below $75 per barrel
• Mortgage rates still above 6.25%

Inside the Economy: The Consumer

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a look at the consumer and financial stress in the system. Headline inflation came down year over year in the month of March. Many of the supply side contributors seem to be returning to pre-pandemic levels, however the consumer seems to be staying strong. How will this impact the Fed’s decision making for the rest of the year?   Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year Treasury around 4%
• Oil on the rise to about $83 per barrel
• Mortgage rates still above 6.25%