Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Consumer Savings & Corporate Profits

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the consumer and corporate profits. The labor force participation rate is climbing and has almost returned to pre-pandemic lows. Mortgage rates are rising, up almost to 5% on a 30-year fixed. Will this impact household spending? How about savings? Corporate profit margins turned in another good quarter. Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil stays around $100 per barrel
• Mortgage payment to income ratio climbs
• Major indices have started to rebound from recent lows.

Inside the Economy: Cost of Money & Energy

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve and energy prices. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, how will that effect inflation and where do we think interest rates will be by the end of the year? Energy prices are sitting at elevated levels, but how long will this persist and what does supply look like going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil stays above $100
• Equity markets rebound on earnings outlook
• 30-year mortgage rates up to 4%
• Retail sales up 8% from pre pandemic levels
• Unemployment under 4%

Inside the Economy: Ukraine

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the tragedy in Ukraine and the economic impacts it may have on a global scale. Oil prices have been rapidly increasing, will this continue? Is the real estate market a bubble or far from it? In other news, legal immigration gets back on trend after the pandemic. Tune in to learn why this is a good thing and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil climbs above $120 per barrel
• 30-year mortgage rates slide to 3.76
• Russia holds very little U.S. Treasury securities

Inside the Economy: The Federal Reserve and Spending

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the expected Fed rate hikes and spending within the economy. There is a lot of discussion on the potential for the Fed to begin raising rates starting in March 2022, but how much will they hike and what does that mean for the economy and the stock market? We are continuing to see all-time highs in retail sales. At what point does the supply finally catch up to the demand? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Mortgage rates cross over 4%
• Core inflation comes in at 6% (YOY)
• 10 Year Treasury rises above 2%
• U.S. petroleum consumption continues to decline

Inside the Economy: Job Market & Cost of Money

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the continuing shifts in the labor market as well as the expected Fed rate hikes. Total job openings remain higher than the unemployment levels. Employment costs continue to creep up year over year. This will probably continue as companies try to fill the gap. The first report for Q4 GDP comes in around 6.9%. What do we expect for 2022? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil climbs above $90 a barrel
• Mortgage rates continue to rise
• Time it takes to ship cargo remains near record highs.

Inside the Economy: Economy & The FED

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the FED meeting and the economy. With the upcoming FED meeting this week, what comments do we expect to see on inflation and interest rates, and how will that effect markets? The economy continues to move along nicely as we saw all-time highs in holiday sales and household spending continuing to rise, but where do supply chain issues, wages, and inflation factor into this story? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Equity markets turn down to start 2022
• Crude Oil up past $85
• Increase in mortgage rates
• Inflation continuous to sit at elevated levels

Inside the Economy: All Eyes on the Consumer

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer and the continuing expansion of the economy. With retail sales at all-time highs, credit card delinquencies at record lows, and savings accounts at peak levels, the US consumer has all the power in this economy. The question is, how long will these levels persist and will the consumer start to spend more of their hard-earned savings? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Equity markets fell to start 2022
• Crude Oil rises to almost $80
• US becomes top exporter of Liquid Natural Gas
• Unemployment numbers fall under 4%

Inside the Economy: Inflation & Government Spending

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation and government spending. We continue to see inflation at elevated levels, but with low wage growth, a strong dollar, and core services inflation sitting around 4%, where do we see inflation going in the future? State and Local Governments are seeing an uptick in revenues as they continue to get some help at the Federal level. But once the Covid Federal support for the consumer goes away, how much will they be on the hook for? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• S&P 500 Price/Earnings leveling off
• Crude Oil continuing to stay around $70
• Jobless Claims continue to decrease

Inside the Economy: Jobs & Savings

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a few different topics. Jobless claims are trending down and permanent job loss from 2020 has recovered quicker than in 2008 and 2001. Some countries have tapped into strategic oil reserves and the recent price decline reflects the impact of extra supply in the market. Estate Tax revenue has been cut in half since 2017. How will the government look to increase future revenue? Tune in to find out!  

Key Takeaways:

• Savings rate have reversed to pre-pandemic levels
• 10-year treasury is starting to tick up
• M2 Money Supply continues to grow

Inside the Economy: Employment, Inflation & Recovery

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss numerous topics. Jobless claims continue to drop, trending towards pre-pandemic lows. Inflation numbers continue to make headlines. Is inflation coming from the push or pull side? What’s the difference? Revenue of the largest U.S. companies continues to trend upwards. How has the recovery been overseas? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• 30-year mortgage rates slightly drop below 3%
• Employment growth has favored higher educated workers
• Oil inventories and demand are trending towards pre pandemic levels