Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending and the Inflation Battle

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer spending and the progress in the inflation battle. Inflation data, represented by the CPI index, has trended down. However, unemployment remains low lending it’s way to sustained strength in consumer spending. Will the conflicting data keep the Federal Reserve on their rate hike campaign, or will they slow down going into 2023? Tune in to find out more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year treasury yield remains above 4%
• 30-year mortgages move under 7%
• Oil drops to around $80 per barrel

Inside the Economy: U.S. Economy & the Stock Market

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the U.S. economy and the stock market. With the most recent year over year inflation number coming in lower than expected, what does that mean for the U.S. economy moving forward and will inflation continue to soften as we move into 2023? The stock market has shown some life over the past 2 weeks, but how do the Mid Term elections and a strong dollar fit into the equation? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil hits $88 a barrel
• Unemployment ticks up slightly
• New mortgage rates above 7

Inside the Economy: Consumer, Corporate and Government Wallets

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at U.S. consumer, corporate and government data. Consumers have more in their checking and savings then they did pre pandemic. Inflation seems to be impacting some ways in which we spend but the aggregate remains up. Corporate profit margins remain elevated. Will the estimates continue to trend up into 2023? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year treasury yield is above 4%
• 30-year mortgages are above 7%
• The federal deficit contracts from 2020 and 2021

Inside the Economy: The Federal Reserve & Housing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve & housing. With the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in early November, the economy and the consumer are waiting to see where interest rates go. Will it be enough to dampen inflation as we move closer to 2023? The housing market continues to soften with mortgage rates above 7% and new loan applications at pre-pandemic lows. Why have prices remained steady and what does that mean for the housing market going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil is back above $85 per barrel
• Jobless claims remain at lows
• Outstanding consumer credit is on the rise
• Manufacturing remains strong

Inside the Economy: The Next Phase in the Inflation Struggle

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a thorough look at the data. Treasury yields have continued to rise as the Federal Reserve maintains their mandate to break inflation and stabilize prices. The consumer is still spending, and the job market continues to remain strong. Where will the cost of money be at the end of the year? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• 2-year treasury yield is above 4%
• 30-year mortgages are closing in on 7%
• Oil continues to decline, down almost 40% YTD

Inside the Economy: The Consumer & U.S. Economy

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer & the U.S. economy. With inventory levels on the rise, the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates, and gas prices moving back down, the U.S. consumer is hoping for inflation to cool as we move into the end of the year. With many saying that the U.S. Economy is heading for a recession, what does that actually mean for the stock market and what can we learn from the past? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil drops below $90
• 30-year mortgage rates above 6%
• Natural gas prices continue to rise
• Mortgage delinquencies & foreclosures at all-time lows

Inside the Economy: Jobs & Housing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss jobs and housing. Layoffs and initial jobless claims remain at low levels, along with increases in the labor participation rate. Mortgage payments as a percentage of income have jumped as we continue to see mortgage rates increase and home prices adjust down, but how is this different from what we saw in 2008? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Jobless claims hold steady
• Corporate profit margins on solid footing
• Mortgages approaching 6%
• Consumer spending starting to slow

Inside the Economy: Inflation & Housing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation & housing. The Consumer Price Index shows us that inflation may have hit its peak, but goods and services spending remain strong and the Fed continues to show its willingness to raise rates to try to tame inflation. The supply of homes in the U.S. has risen as new loan applications fall with the increase in mortgage rates, but what does that mean for the housing market going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• US industrial production continues to rise
• Used car market weakens
• Oil hovering around $90
• Mortgage rates back up above 5%

Inside the Economy: Consumer Debt & Real Estate

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer debt & real estate. Consumer debt continues to rise alongside a decline in the personal saving rate to pre-pandemic levels. Home prices have started to come down as mortgage rates rise above 5%, but what does this mean for new home buyers and the economy moving forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• S&P 500 estimated earnings remain strong
• Unemployment numbers shift lower
• Oil back down to $90
• Major indices trend up in July

Inside the Economy: Interest rates & Housing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we will dive a little deeper into June’s headline vs core inflation numbers. As oil drops below $100/barrel, will that signal the peak of inflation? In the housing market, loan applications decline to a level we haven’t seen in over two decades. Where will mortgage rates end up? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• 10-year treasury yield is around 2.9%
• 30-year mortgages are closing in on 6%
• Jobless claims tick up