Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending & Housing

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer spending and housing. With credit card spending on the rise and savings rates moving down, how long will this strong consumer spending last? Net home sales have seen a national pullback, and with mortgage rates in the high 5% range, where do we think the housing market is going? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings ratio adjusts down to 16
• Oil above $120
• Core inflation sitting at 6%
• Unemployment rate of 3.6%

Inside the Economy: Inflation & Global Food Supply

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a full economic agenda including inflation, the stock market and news on global food supplies. Job openings continue to rise, and data suggest people 65 and older haven’t returned to the workforce since April 2020. Will we see this change due to higher gas and food prices? The stock market continues to experience volatility and how bad is the water crisis in the middle east? Tune in to find out.

Key Takeaways:

• Oil remains above $100 per barrel
• 30-year mortgages are closing in on 6%
• The 10-year treasury yield falls to 2.85%

Inside the Economy: This is not the Recession

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the latest reports and economic data. First quarter GDP numbers surprised to the down side and reported as -1.4% year over year. The contraction in GDP largely was due to the trade imbalance and less government spending. Will we see more negative GDP numbers in Q2? We also look at rising yields and mortgage rates. Will the Federal Reserve aggressively continue their rate hike campaign and what does that mean for the global economy? Tune in to find out.

Key Takeaways:

• Oil remains above $100 per barrel
• 30 year mortgage rates climb above 5%
• The 10 year treasury yield reaches 3%.

Inside the Economy: Employment/Inflation

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss Employment and Inflation. We are currently seeing elevated costs of employment, along with low jobless claims, but what does that mean for the economy going forward? Inflation continues to remain at elevated levels, but will the Federal Reserve raising interest rates help to bring it back down? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil above $100
• Natural gas prices increase
• 30-year mortgage rates up to 5%
• 2021 average tax returns see a boost

Inside the Economy: Consumer Savings & Corporate Profits

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the consumer and corporate profits. The labor force participation rate is climbing and has almost returned to pre-pandemic lows. Mortgage rates are rising, up almost to 5% on a 30-year fixed. Will this impact household spending? How about savings? Corporate profit margins turned in another good quarter. Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil stays around $100 per barrel
• Mortgage payment to income ratio climbs
• Major indices have started to rebound from recent lows.

Inside the Economy: Cost of Money & Energy

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve and energy prices. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, how will that effect inflation and where do we think interest rates will be by the end of the year? Energy prices are sitting at elevated levels, but how long will this persist and what does supply look like going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil stays above $100
• Equity markets rebound on earnings outlook
• 30-year mortgage rates up to 4%
• Retail sales up 8% from pre pandemic levels
• Unemployment under 4%

Inside the Economy: Ukraine

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the tragedy in Ukraine and the economic impacts it may have on a global scale. Oil prices have been rapidly increasing, will this continue? Is the real estate market a bubble or far from it? In other news, legal immigration gets back on trend after the pandemic. Tune in to learn why this is a good thing and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil climbs above $120 per barrel
• 30-year mortgage rates slide to 3.76
• Russia holds very little U.S. Treasury securities

Inside the Economy: The Federal Reserve and Spending

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the expected Fed rate hikes and spending within the economy. There is a lot of discussion on the potential for the Fed to begin raising rates starting in March 2022, but how much will they hike and what does that mean for the economy and the stock market? We are continuing to see all-time highs in retail sales. At what point does the supply finally catch up to the demand? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Mortgage rates cross over 4%
• Core inflation comes in at 6% (YOY)
• 10 Year Treasury rises above 2%
• U.S. petroleum consumption continues to decline

Inside the Economy: Job Market & Cost of Money

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the continuing shifts in the labor market as well as the expected Fed rate hikes. Total job openings remain higher than the unemployment levels. Employment costs continue to creep up year over year. This will probably continue as companies try to fill the gap. The first report for Q4 GDP comes in around 6.9%. What do we expect for 2022? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil climbs above $90 a barrel
• Mortgage rates continue to rise
• Time it takes to ship cargo remains near record highs.

Inside the Economy: Economy & The FED

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the FED meeting and the economy. With the upcoming FED meeting this week, what comments do we expect to see on inflation and interest rates, and how will that effect markets? The economy continues to move along nicely as we saw all-time highs in holiday sales and household spending continuing to rise, but where do supply chain issues, wages, and inflation factor into this story? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Equity markets turn down to start 2022
• Crude Oil up past $85
• Increase in mortgage rates
• Inflation continuous to sit at elevated levels