Sharkey, Howes & Javer

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer & the U.S. economy. With inventory levels on the rise, the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates, and gas prices moving back down, the U.S. consumer is hoping for inflation to cool as we move into the end of the year. With many saying that the U.S. Economy is heading for a recession, what does that actually mean for the stock market and what can we learn from the past? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Oil drops below $90
• 30-year mortgage rates above 6%
• Natural gas prices continue to rise
• Mortgage delinquencies & foreclosures at all-time lows

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss jobs and housing. Layoffs and initial jobless claims remain at low levels, along with increases in the labor participation rate. Mortgage payments as a percentage of income have jumped as we continue to see mortgage rates increase and home prices adjust down, but how is this different from what we saw in 2008? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• Jobless claims hold steady
• Corporate profit margins on solid footing
• Mortgages approaching 6%
• Consumer spending starting to slow

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation & housing. The Consumer Price Index shows us that inflation may have hit its peak, but goods and services spending remain strong and the Fed continues to show its willingness to raise rates to try to tame inflation. The supply of homes in the U.S. has risen as new loan applications fall with the increase in mortgage rates, but what does that mean for the housing market going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• US industrial production continues to rise
• Used car market weakens
• Oil hovering around $90
• Mortgage rates back up above 5%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer debt & real estate. Consumer debt continues to rise alongside a decline in the personal saving rate to pre-pandemic levels. Home prices have started to come down as mortgage rates rise above 5%, but what does this mean for new home buyers and the economy moving forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• S&P 500 estimated earnings remain strong
• Unemployment numbers shift lower
• Oil back down to $90
• Major indices trend up in July

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we will dive a little deeper into June’s headline vs core inflation numbers. As oil drops below $100/barrel, will that signal the peak of inflation? In the housing market, loan applications decline to a level we haven’t seen in over two decades. Where will mortgage rates end up? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• 10-year treasury yield is around 2.9%
• 30-year mortgages are closing in on 6%
• Jobless claims tick up

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer prices and potential recession. As inflation continues to remain high, we are seeing increased gas & food prices but also lower logistics costs & home prices. What does that mean for our wallets in the coming months? There has been talk of recession, but what does that mean for the consumer and are there any surprises in the economy moving forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• S&P 500 forecasted earnings remain strong
• Oil back below $100
• S. Dollar continues to strengthen
• New U.S. manufacturing construction hits new highs

This week on “Inside the Economy”, all eyes continue to be on inflation as well as mortgage rates. We’ve seen energy, metals and other commodities trend lower, which should create some relief in the overall inflation numbers. As the Fed continues to raise short term rates, mortgage rates continue to climb. This is creating some softness in home prices and new homes being built. Will this impact the rental market? Tune in to find out.

Key Takeaways:

• Oil falls off highs, down to $104 per barrel
• 30-year mortgages are closing in on 6%
• The 10-year treasury yield is above 3%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer spending and housing. With credit card spending on the rise and savings rates moving down, how long will this strong consumer spending last? Net home sales have seen a national pullback, and with mortgage rates in the high 5% range, where do we think the housing market is going? Tune in to learn about this and more!

Key Takeaways:

• S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings ratio adjusts down to 16
• Oil above $120
• Core inflation sitting at 6%
• Unemployment rate of 3.6%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a full economic agenda including inflation, the stock market and news on global food supplies. Job openings continue to rise, and data suggest people 65 and older haven’t returned to the workforce since April 2020. Will we see this change due to higher gas and food prices? The stock market continues to experience volatility and how bad is the water crisis in the middle east? Tune in to find out.

Key Takeaways:

• Oil remains above $100 per barrel
• 30-year mortgages are closing in on 6%
• The 10-year treasury yield falls to 2.85%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the latest reports and economic data. First quarter GDP numbers surprised to the down side and reported as -1.4% year over year. The contraction in GDP largely was due to the trade imbalance and less government spending. Will we see more negative GDP numbers in Q2? We also look at rising yields and mortgage rates. Will the Federal Reserve aggressively continue their rate hike campaign and what does that mean for the global economy? Tune in to find out.

Key Takeaways:

• Oil remains above $100 per barrel
• 30 year mortgage rates climb above 5%
• The 10 year treasury yield reaches 3%.