Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Consumer Debt & Economic Slow Down

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer debt and the pending economic slowdown. Credit Card and HELOC balances have ticked up over recent months, but despite this, there has been limited delinquency in student loans, mortgages, and HELOCs. Auto loans and credit cards on the other hand have shown a slight uptick in delinquencies.  What does that mean for the consumer as we move into the second half of the year? There is still lots of talk of “recession” on the horizon, as we see unemployment above 4%, but looking at the other data around the economy, does a slowdown seem more likely than recession? Revenue growth within the S&P 500, after a period of earnings recession, is beginning to normalize, reflecting a more balanced economic landscape. Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• Headline inflation drops below 3%
• Oil remains under $80
• Unemployment at 4.3%

Inside the Economy: Unemployment, housing, and the Federal Budget

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore unemployment, housing, and the federal budget. Regarding employment, the JOLTS three-month moving averages are trending downward. Additionally, permanent job losers and persons completing temporary jobs increased by 1.4% in July. If this figure reaches 2%, what might it indicate for the economy? In other news, Freddie Mac’s report on home sale prices shows a decrease year-over-year. Which markets are experiencing greater reductions in home sale prices? Will the overall housing market reach 2009 lows? The Federal Reserve has not materially shrunk the stock of money despite interest-rate hikes. Given the current money supply overhang, can the government stimulate a recovery? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• ISM Survey at 46.8
• Unemployment at 4.3%
• 10-year bond yield at 3.99%

Inside the Economy: Housing, Federal Reserve, and Consumer Price Index

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss housing, the Federal Reserve interest and Federal funds rate, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Federal funds rate is currently higher than all main U.S. inflation measures. Is the cost of money greater than inflation by design? In other news, per the CPI Primary Shelter measure, rents continue to come down. However, mortgage interest as a percent of disposable income increased slightly. How does that compare to non-mortgage interest such as credit cards and auto loans? If there is a recession, would housing be the driver? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• 10 yr. bond at 4.2%
• Industrial Production Output Index at 104.0 in June
• S. Core CPI at 3.3 (YOY)

Inside the Economy: Employment, Housing, and Retail Traders

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore the broader economic indicators, such as U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), employment, and housing and vacancy rates. Overall U.S. GDP growth has slowed as a comparison of 2023 to 2024 quarter one readings. When might we see negative GDP growth? Will there be a recession? Government employment has recently stabilized and is back to its pre-covid trend. How does this compare to non-government jobs and unemployment? Lastly, home buying conditions are down. What does this mean for new home sales? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. GDP growth rate at 1.3% in Q1
• Unemployment at 4.1%
• 30 yr. Mortgage at 6.95%

Inside the Economy: Jobs, Markets, and Foreign Demand

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss payroll and job openings, market valuations, and foreign demand in U.S. markets. The rate of U.S. job openings has dropped from its post-Covid peak. Is this a negative event or normalization in the job market? In other news, there is a large disparity between the S&P 500 market capitalization as a comparison to the European market. Does this mean the U.S market is overbought? What does this tell us regarding the U.S. dollar as a currency? Additionally, foreign demand has increased in the U.S. market. What securities are foreign investors pouring money into? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• 10-year bond yield at 4.25%
• S. Head CPI at 3.2 (YOY)
• Unemployment at 4.0%

Inside the Economy: Wages, Housing, U.S. Financial Conditions

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore wages, housing prices and mortgages, and the U.S. financial conditions. The U.S. average hourly earnings report for May came in with a reading of 4%. Why are year-over-year wages still high? What would lowering rates do for wages? As for housing, renters are not experiencing an increased burden regarding their income spent on housing. How does that compare to the homeowner’s burden? In other news, U.S. financial conditions are easing with less liquidity issues. What was the U.S. financial conditions index at when the Federal Reserve started interest rate hikes? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• ISM Services at 53.8
• Unemployment at 4.0%
• Aggregate delinquency rates at 3.2%

Inside the Economy: Consumer Confidence, Mortgage Rates, and U.S. Markets

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer confidence, mortgage rates, and U.S. Markets. The May consumer confidence index report shows a higher than anticipated reading. Who is typically surveyed for the consumer confidence index report? As for interest rates, the Federal Reserve Board forecasts rates to decrease to 4% in the next two years. What is the forecast for mortgage rates? Lastly, Foreign investments in U.S. Markets eclipse $25 Trillion. Do countries like Singapore, Australia, or the U.K. have additional monies for future investment? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Consumer Confidence Index at 102
• 30-Year Mortgage rate at 6.94%
• Foreign Investments in U.S. Markets surpass $25T

Inside the Economy: Employment, Currency, and Natural Gas

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate employment, currency, and the importance of Natural Gas as a U.S. export. The recent job openings report shows a continued trend downward. What does this tell us about the trajectory of the U.S. economy? In other news, the U.S. dollar index continues to strengthen. How do global payments denominated in the U.S. dollar compare to other currencies such as the Euro? Lastly, the U.S. is a major exporter of Natural Gas. How much supply is left to keep the trend going? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Total job openings at 8.5M
• S. Dollar Index at 106.2
• ISM Manufacturing index falls below 50

Inside the Economy: Debt, Housing, and Federal Government

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss personal interest expense and changes in household debt. What category has the highest percent change from 2023? New home sales have slowed due to higher interest rates, but what does this mean for delinquency rates? Federal net interest outlays are climbing higher in amount as compared to historical data. However, how does the near 3% share of GDP compare to the past and is it necessarily bad for the overall economy? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• S. GDP growth slowed to a 1.6% rate in Q1
• Personal interest expense is approximately $500B
• 30-year mortgage at 7.17%

Inside the Economy: Consumer Spending, Bonds, and Imports

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we monitor the increased consumer spending in tandem with rising delinquencies on mortgages. Is the Federal Reserve going to consider any rate hike movement before year-end? Consumers are still flooding into the stock market, alongside money flowing into money market bond funds. U.S. goods imported have remained steady or on the rise for most countries. What country is on the downward trend? 

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. Head CPI at 3.5 (YOY)
• Crude Oil at $83.71
• Credit Card account revolving balances exceed $600B