Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside the Economy: Labor Market, Housing and Delinquencies, and Energy

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at key developments in the labor market, housing, and energy. Nonfarm employment growth in the U.S. continues to slow. Are we seeing a return to pre-pandemic norms, or is something else driving this trend? Delinquencies are rising among upper income borrowers. How does this compare to lower income households, and could it point to broader representation of which jobs are not hiring? Federal Government employment is also declining. Which jobs are being impacted more and is it impacting public services offered by the government? On the corporate side, earnings have generally been strong, and markets appear to be adjusting in response to those results. What was the only sector to score negative earnings growth? Lastly, electricity costs are up approximately 15-20%. This is not due to electric vehicles or auto manufacturers, but instead a new source of demand that is straining the grid. What is fueling this surge? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• S. GDP growth rate at 3.0% in Q1
• Federal Employment in July at 2.9M
• European Union’s share of total U.S. Imports at 20.2% from January to May 2025

Inside the Economy: Consumer Price Index, Real House Prices, U.S. Prices, and China

This week on Inside the Economy, we address the Consumer Price Index mainly looking at primary shelter, core goods, and U.S. retail sales. In the latest core consumer price index report, both primary shelter costs and core good prices continue to decline. Meanwhile, the potential impact of new tariffs is continuing to spark debate. How might they shape the inflation outlook moving forward? Real house prices are finally easing after years of steady increases. Could the 30-year fixed mortgage follow suit? On the earnings front, second quarter earnings are projected to grow just 2.8%, marking the lowest expected increase in the past two years. At the same time, expected volatility in the S&P 500 has dropped to its lowest level since February. Curious about how much interest the U.S. government is paying on its debt? Tune in to learn more!

Key Takeaways:

• S. Federal Government interest payments surpass $1 trillion
• Japan’s GDP per capita has declined over the last decade
• Chinese exports at record high

Inside the Economy: Housing Market, Stock Market, Electricity, and the Dollar

This week on Inside the Economy, we address the housing market in terms of inventory, stock market performance, the dollar, and the pace of electricity generation in the U.S. The inventory of new homes for sale increased to 507,000 in May. How do Colorado and Denver compare to other markets in terms of active listings? What are the numbers of first-time home buyers? Electricity generation continues to trend upward, showing no signs of slowing down. One way to keep pace with rising electricity demand is by building nuclear reactors. Which states are exploring reactor production? Turning to the dollar, its price has fallen, but history shows present weakness is not extreme, and it may still have more room to fall. What is the current U.S. share of global GDP, and how did that share shift when China joined the World Trade Organization? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• New Orders for Durable Goods up 16.4%
• S. GDP growth rate at -.5% in Q1
• Layoff and Discharge Rate at 1.04% in May

Inside the Economy: Housing, Immigration, and Treasuries

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the housing market, immigration, and the Treasury market. Mortgage rates have been hovering around 7%. Has the heightened level of interest rates negatively impacted existing home sales? New construction of single-family homes stands at over 900,000; how does that compare to multifamily construction? In other news, U.S. immigration trends for green card holders and temporary visa recipients have remained steady or slightly increased, but has immigration among other foreign nationals declined, possibly due to recent policy shifts? Meanwhile, the 30-year yield has begun to creep down from its peak in May. Could Treasuries still be considered a safe haven for both domestic and foreign investment? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Head CPI Inflation at 2.4% (YOY)
• 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.81%
• Existing Home Sales at $4M in May

Inside the Economy: Stock Market Performance, Corporate America, and Debt

This week on Inside the Economy, we address stock market performance, corporate America, current trade and tariff developments, and government debt. The S&P 500 posted its best May performance in 35 years, challenging the old saying, “Sell in May and go away.” Which companies led the index during this rally? How have capital expenditures evolved among large technology firms in recent years? We also explore how Asian economies have significantly increased their net purchases of U.S. bonds and stocks since 1997—a trend largely driven by their export relationships with the U.S. and subsequent investments in U.S. Treasuries. Has this pattern changed since the onset of trade tensions? Finally, as tariffs increase the cost of imported goods and services, could businesses begin passing those costs on to consumers? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Unemployment at 4.2%
• 30-year bond yield at 4.95%
• S. Debt-to-GFP ratio is 123% as of April 2025

Inside the Economy: Tariffs, European Union, Interest Rates, and Markets

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss tariffs, trade relations with the European Union, interest rates in the U.S. and abroad, and global stock market performance. U.S. Customs duties reached an all-time high, generating $25.5 billion in revenue in May. What sectors are the primary contributors to this surge? In recent developments, the U.S. and the E.U. have begun discussions on future trade agreements. As our largest trading partner—accounting for roughly 5% of U.S. GDP—what is currently the largest import from the E.U.? Turning to the bond market, the 30-year Treasury yield has hit both a yearly and decade high. While Moody’s recent downgrade played a role, what other factors might have contributed to the spike in yields? Finally, we explore market expectations for interest rate changes. How much easing is currently priced in based on 12-month federal funds rate futures? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• 30-year bond yield at 5.03%
• Head CPI Inflation at 2.3% (YOY)
• Bank of Japan Policy Rate at .50% in May

Inside the Economy: Wages, Inflation, and Trade Agreements

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into the current state of wage growth, job prospects, inflation trends, Federal Reserve activity, and emerging trade agreements. Wage growth, which experienced downward pressure following the Fed’s interest rate hikes starting in 2022, appears to be stabilizing. Currently, the average monthly wage per U.S. worker is around $7,000. How does this figure compare with wages in the E.U. and other nations? On the inflation front, the cost of borrowing (interest rates) exceeds the rate of inflation (CPI), a potentially positive signal for the economy. Is there mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates this summer? Meanwhile, trade negotiations are gaining momentum. How significant is it for the U.S. to secure a balanced trade agreement with China? What elements of the recent E.U. deal stand out as particularly beneficial for the U.S.? And which other countries might be priorities in America’s trade strategy? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• Core PCE Inflation at 2.6% (YOY)
• 10-year bond yield at 4.37%
• ISM Services at 51.6

Inside the Economy: New Tariffs, S&P 500, and Trade Issues

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at the impact of new tariffs, the S&P 500, and ongoing trade issues—particularly with China. Revenue from customs duties, commonly referred to as tariffs, has reached an all-time high since record-keeping began. While this revenue may soon peak and begin to decline, it is not projected to disappear entirely. In which countries or industries could tariffs remain elevated? Turning to markets and the S&P 500, earnings and revenues are not setting records, but healthcare and other sectors have been trending upward. Why are industrials moving lower? Could the market currently be in oversold territory? Trade tensions also continue to escalate, particularly between the U.S. and China. How does China’s dependence on exports with the U.S. compare with that of other trading partners. Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• New Orders for Durable Goods up 9.1%
• Custom Duties reach $15B in revenue in April
• Manufacturing Production Output index at 101.1 in March

Inside the Economy: Consumer Economy, Tariffs, Economics of Russia in Europe

This week on Inside the Economy, we analyze the strength of consumers in the economy, trade and tariffs, and economics of Russia in Europe. The economic report is still providing minimal worry signs for the current state of the economy. Consumer spending ticked down slightly in February—but has generally remained on trend. What events may have impacted consumer spending in the first quarter? Tariff strategies have been implemented at higher levels than expected but have recently been scaled back. Vietnam was the first country to enter negotiations with the U.S.—what is being discussed with Scott Bessent? What other countries have started talks with the U.S.? Meanwhile, European nations are recognizing the importance of Russia’s vast hydrocarbon supply as energy costs continue to rise. How does U.K. household electricity spending compare to that of the U.S.? Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• S. Core CPI at 2.8 (YOY)
• Unemployment at 4.2%
• Discretionary Consumer Spending increased 2.1% in February (YOY)

Inside the Economy: International Stocks, Inflation & Personal Income, Market Volatility

This week, on "Inside the Economy," we will break down the international stock markets and their outperformance compared to the US in 2025. Could this be the beginning of a long-awaited turnaround in the international markets? The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure showed a slight uptick in March while personal incomes also rose. Can US consumers continue to power the economy forward as they have over the past few years? Amid a market pullback and the potential for a correction in the S&P500, we review recent market volatility and how often we see corrections and bear markets. Overall, we continue to see strength in international stocks and a normalization in inflation. Tune in to learn more!

 

Key Takeaways:

• European stocks are beating the US by a record
• Gold, International stocks, and Fixed income are the best performers of the year so far
• Portfolio diversification appears to be benefiting investors as the S&P500 nears correction territory